The crypto market scenario in 2026 indicated by 7 major institutions: Towards an era of institutionalization

As 2025 comes to an end, the crypto market is approaching a new crossroads amid silence. Over the past year, new narratives such as the shift in U.S. monetary policy, emerging prediction market platforms, and on-chain securitization have risen one after another, rapidly increasing the complexity and maturity of the market structure.

In late 2025, major industry players like a16z, Galaxy, Bitwise, Messari, Grayscale, Delphi Digital, and VanEck have successively released scenario reports for 2026. Unlike typical KOL commentary that focuses on short-term price predictions, these institutional reports share a common focus on the fundamental question of “how the industry itself will transform” rather than “what will be the next trend.”

Common Understanding: From “Individual Speculation Cycle” to “Institutional Capital Era”

A cross-analysis of these reports reveals a clear signal—the crypto market is undergoing a structural shift from a sentiment-driven cycle of individual investors to an “Institutional Era” that emphasizes compliance, value creation, and long-term capital allocation.

The shared consensus among institutions includes:

• The macro environment is shifting from headwinds to tailwinds, accelerating institutional participation
• The dominance of the four-year cycle is waning, with longer-term capital logic gaining prominence
• Stablecoins and RWAs are strengthening connections to real-world assets, expanding on-chain use cases
• The fusion of prediction markets and AI×Crypto is creating new growth frontiers

Differentiated Perspectives from Each Institution

a16z: Emphasizing Implementation and User Experience

a16z focuses not on short-term price fluctuations or regulatory tug-of-wars but on the fundamental question of how next-generation crypto products will be adopted by real users. They pay attention to three pillars: “Realization,” “User Experience,” and “Scalability.”

Of particular interest is the integration of AI agents and blockchain. AI agents executing automated trading and on-chain services—how will they prove their identity?—a16z addresses this with a new paradigm called “Know Your Agent (KYA).” They also envision a future where staking reward mechanisms become the basic investment option, forming the foundation of on-chain economies.

Galaxy: Diversification of Market Structure and Probability Distributions

Galaxy’s report begins with an analysis of market structure. Regarding Bitcoin’s price in 2026, they position it as “uncertain but not pessimistic,” noting that options market pricing suggests a roughly equal probability that BTC will be near $70,000 or $130,000 by mid-2026. This broad range reflects market ambiguity about the direction.

They also emphasize Bitcoin’s shift toward becoming a mature asset like gold. In the Solana ecosystem, a transition from meme-stage to actual revenue-generating projects is expected, with the possibility that stablecoin trading volume could surpass that of the US ACH system.

Bitwise: Bullish Scenario Seeking Certainty

Bitwise, showing the clearest bullish stance in the industry, highlights that by the end of 2025, the total assets in U.S. spot ETFs have exceeded $12 billion. They argue that the dual structure of full market participation by Wall Street and ongoing retail investor involvement forms the sustainable foundation for the next cycle.

Their 10 key predictions include Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs again, Bitcoin volatility falling below NVIDIA stock, and over 100 crypto ETFs listed in the U.S. They also include an “extra” forecast that AI-related crypto native projects may form an independent market segment.

Messari: Turning Point from Speculation to System Integration

Messari defines 2026 as a “turning year.” Even if sentiment temporarily dips, they see this as a phase of building the foundation for systemic integration. While Bitcoin’s continued rise proves its status as a currency asset, mainstream assets like ETH and BNB have yet to gain the same premium.

Notably, privacy assets and application-layer currencies are rising. Projects like Virtuals and Zora are choosing to build their own currency systems rather than relying on a single token at the base layer, pushing currency innovation to a new stage.

Grayscale: Dawn of Institutionalization and Structural Growth

Grayscale clearly positions 2026 as a turning point from the “individual investor cycle” to “institution-led” growth. Rare digital assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum will continue to see increasing demand as alternative value assets in macro environments, while improved regulation will promote deeper integration of traditional capital and blockchain technology.

Price-wise, Bitcoin is expected to reach new highs in the first half of the year. They suggest the end of the traditional “4-year cycle” mechanism and a shift toward longer-term capital accumulation and macro asset allocation. In DeFi, staking rewards will become more significant, and protocols with sustainable income models will be favored.

Delphi Digital: Rise of Social Trading and Agent Finance

Delphi Digital sees “social trading” and “agent finance” as the main growth drivers for 2026. They position AI agents as catalysts for a paradigm shift in on-chain finance, automating rebalancing, strategy execution, and profit optimization, enabling users to participate in complex financial activities without constant market monitoring.

On the macro side, a Federal Reserve rate cut is expected, supporting a flow of funds into risk assets. Clearer regulation, the flywheel effect of Bitcoin ETFs, and deeper institutional adoption will lay the groundwork for more advanced automated on-chain strategies in DeFi.

VanEck: Cautious View on Turbulent Phase

VanEck’s outlook is relatively cautious. They suggest 2026 is likely to be a “year of turbulence” rather than a cycle of extreme volatility like the past. While Bitcoin experienced over 80% decline in the previous cycle, the current decline is about 35%, indicating most downside risk has been priced in.

Global liquidity is complex; as the AI industry rapidly absorbs capital, corporate borrowing costs are rising, and market liquidity remains tight. They expect B2B stablecoin payments and cross-border settlement optimization to develop, but recommend a regular purchase strategy of 1%–3%.

Market Direction: More Certainty, Less Uncertainty

Integrating these perspectives, the outline of the 2026 crypto market gradually becomes clearer:

1. Structural Improvement in the Macro Environment All institutions largely agree that this is a critical turning point from headwinds to tailwinds. The Fed’s rate cuts and improved global liquidity environment will provide new macro support for rare assets like Bitcoin.

2. Full-Scale Institutionalization The market is no longer dominated by individual investors; multiple capital inflow channels such as ETFs, on-chain asset management, and pension funds are forming. The shift from short-term speculation to stable allocation is underway.

3. Weakening of Cyclical Patterns The rhythm driven by four-year halving cycles is being replaced by longer-term capital logic, with a transition toward “slow bear” cycles similar to mature assets like gold and stocks.

4. Bridge Functions of Stablecoins and RWAs The importance of staking reward stablecoins penetrating payments, settlements, and corporate finance is rapidly increasing. The explosion of RWAs will expand market depth through on-chain migration of traditional assets.

5. Rapid Advancement of Prediction Markets Success stories like Polymarket suggest that regulatory easing could integrate prediction markets into broader financial activities.

6. Accelerated Fusion of AI×Crypto Multiple institutions recognize this as a catalyst for explosive growth. As AI evolves rapidly, the synergy of blockchain providing trust, payments, and decentralized solutions is warming quickly.

Summary: An Era of Accumulation and Readiness

The end of each cycle echoes at the start of the next.

Looking ahead to the approaching 2026, the crypto industry may have reached a stage of waiting for activation. From ETFs and on-chain securitization to AI agent deployment, new narratives are no longer solely dependent on speculation but rooted in practical demand and macro structures.

This cycle may be relatively slow. However, because of that, it is more likely to result in more reliable growth.