The Federal Reserve Chair candidate reverses, market betting direction adjusts significantly, Bitcoin faces short-term pressure

DAOTruant · 2026-01-19T09:11:00+00:00

Trump's unexpected statement on the Fed Chair candidate changed market expectations, leading to a decrease in the probability of Hassett's election and an increase in Warsh's chances. Bitcoin prices subsequently declined, and the market's re-pricing of monetary policy also caused short-term volatility in crypto assets.

DAOTruant

2026-01-19 09:11:00

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Recently, Trump’s statements regarding the Federal Reserve chairmanship have triggered a chain reaction in the financial markets. According to Reuters, Trump publicly announced from the White House that although it is widely believed that current White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett will succeed Chairman Powell, he actually prefers Hassett to remain in his current position, citing this personnel change as “a serious concern.”

This unexpected statement immediately rewrote market expectations. Data from the prediction market Polymarket shows that the probability of Hassett winning has dropped sharply, while his main competitor, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, has seen his chances rise to nearly 60%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s rally has been noticeably suppressed. According to the latest data, BTC is currently priced at $93,230, down 2.05% over the past 24 hours.

This indicates a re-pricing of market expectations for monetary policy. Hassett is viewed by the market as a relatively dovish and moderate representative; if he takes the helm of the Fed, there could be more room for rate cuts by 2026, which is undoubtedly positive for Bitcoin and other risk assets. Conversely, Warsh exhibits a more hawkish stance, suggesting that high interest rates may be maintained for a longer period, which could exert short-term pressure on cryptocurrencies.

It is worth noting that Warsh is not a stranger to the crypto field—he has been involved in investments in crypto companies and has served as an advisor to the institutional crypto bank Anchorage. However, analysts point out that these backgrounds do not change his strict stance on monetary policy. Aurelie Barthere, Chief Research Analyst at Nansen, directly stated that Hassett was originally “more supportive of the crypto market,” and there are fundamental differences in their policy inclinations.

The market is currently in a phase of re-pricing policy expectations, and short-term volatility in crypto assets may continue.

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