Gold price target directly at $4,800, multiple factors support the strong performance of precious metals

The precious metals market performed well in 2025, with the impressive performance of gold prices attracting widespread industry attention. According to the latest analyses from multiple investment banks, gold still has considerable upside potential, with expectations that it may break new highs before Q4 2026.

Forecast Targets and Market Consensus

Major investment banks are raising their expectations for precious metal prices. Morgan Stanley’s latest report indicates that gold could reach $4,800 per ounce before Q4 2026. This forecast is an upward revision from their previous target of $4,400 set six months ago, reflecting a deepening understanding of the supporting factors for gold prices. Meanwhile, JP Morgan’s outlook is more aggressive, suggesting that gold could reach $5,000 during the same period, and potentially hit $6,000 in the long term.

These predictions are not unfounded. Gold recorded an increase of over 64% in 2025, marking its strongest annual performance since 1979. The market fully recognizes the continuation of this trend, with institutions like ING also indicating ongoing growth momentum.

Interwoven Supporting Factors, Continued Demand

Interest rate policies and exchange rate changes are driving prices. As the Federal Reserve is expected to further cut interest rates, the cost of holding gold decreases in a low-interest environment, significantly boosting its attractiveness. At the same time, the US dollar depreciated by about 9%, marking the worst annual performance since 2017, further enhancing the appeal of gold priced in dollars.

Central banks and investors remain eager buyers. The proportion of global central bank gold reserves has surpassed US debt holdings for the first time (a first since 1996), reflecting long-term institutional confidence. Gold ETFs also saw historic net inflows, indicating both institutional allocation needs and increased retail participation.

Geopolitical risks continue to escalate. Changes in Venezuela this week have once again triggered safe-haven demand, pushing up the prices of gold and other safe assets. Uncertainty in energy and financial markets has increased demand for traditional safe-haven assets like gold. As a gold trader at Heraeus in Germany stated, when economic and political tensions intensify, investors tend to allocate more to gold to hedge risks.

Supply Pressure Supports the Precious Metals Sector

The strength of precious metals is not limited to gold. Silver surged by 147% in 2025, marking its strongest annual performance ever, with structural supply shortages being a key driver. Policy adjustments in emerging markets’ exports have intensified supply pressures, while booming demand from solar and energy storage industries has optimistic prospects for 2026, according to ING analysts.

The industrial metals sector is also tight. The March contract for (LME) copper on the London Metal Exchange hit a record, reaching $13,387.50 per ton this week. The recovery in US import demand contrasts with ongoing mine supply constraints, indicating that the global market will remain under high tension into 2026.

Aluminum and nickel face similar patterns. Outside Indonesia, aluminum supply remains tight, with US procurement rebounding and pushing prices higher. Nickel prices have performed well, but some of the gains may already be priced in, and future risks should be monitored.

Investor Sentiment Shift Drives Buying

Market consensus is resonant: Gold is no longer just an inflation hedge but also a macroeconomic barometer. Morgan Stanley strategists emphasize that investors view gold as a comprehensive risk indicator, from central bank policies to geopolitical risks, supported by expectations of dollar depreciation, strong ETF inflows, and ongoing central bank purchases.

Even retail investors are joining the allocation trend, demonstrating the broad demand base for gold. Amid trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, capital continues to flow into safe-haven assets like gold, prompting central banks worldwide to accelerate diversification of their reserves.

Overall, the target of $4,800 for gold reflects the combined effects of falling interest rates, dollar depreciation, geopolitical risks, and central bank demand. The strong outlook for the precious metals sector is based on genuine supply constraints and multi-layered demand support, and this trend is expected to continue into 2026.