Will gold fall on Tether XAUT?

Starting in 2026, gold asset allocation has become a new focus for many investors. But the key question is—will gold fall? Over the next year, how will this oldest global safe-haven asset evolve? This article will analyze gold price trends, downside risks, and allocation value from the perspective of XAUT, Tether’s gold token.

Gold 2026 Outlook: Rise or Fall?

Regarding the future trend of gold, industry opinions are not unanimous. UBS currently maintains a bullish stance, raising its target prices for gold in March, June, and September 2026 to $5,000 per ounce, up from the previous $4,500. However, it is noteworthy that UBS also expects gold prices to slightly decline to $4,800 per ounce by the end of 2026.

What does this imply? While institutions acknowledge the possibility of continued upward momentum in the first half of the year, a clear correction is expected in the second half—dropping from $5,000 to $4,800, a decline of about 4%. This directly answers the question: “Will gold fall?” It’s not a matter of if, but when and how much.

Compared to 2025, where spot gold gained approximately 65% and surged to a historic high of $4,549.96/oz, the key to whether gold’s rally can continue into 2026 lies in whether the fundamental support for gold remains solid.

Three Major Factors Supporting Continued Gold Rally

Although a correction is expected by year-end, multiple supports still bolster gold prices before that.

First, geopolitical and US policy uncertainties. The World Gold Council’s latest report indicates that the upcoming Supreme Court decision on tariffs could significantly impact US trade policy and gold prices. Meanwhile, ongoing geopolitical conflicts (recent US actions in Venezuela are a recent example) continue to provide support for gold prices. These factors suggest that until policy clarity is achieved, safe-haven demand for gold will remain high.

Second, continuous inflows into global gold ETFs. In 2025, gold ETFs experienced unprecedented net capital inflows. North American funds contributed the majority of global inflows, while Asian gold holdings nearly doubled, and European demand was also significant. This indicates that investor enthusiasm for gold allocation remains strong, with institutional-level funds continuing to favor precious metals as a core asset class.

Third, persistent central bank gold purchases. Amid the global “de-dollarization” trend, central banks worldwide continue to buy gold to optimize foreign exchange reserves. The Federal Reserve’s restart of rate cuts also indirectly supports gold’s attractiveness, as low-interest-rate environments reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.

Why Tether XAUT Is the Top Choice for Gold Allocation?

For crypto investors interested in gold asset allocation, “Will gold fall?” is not the most urgent question; rather, “How to allocate gold” is more critical. In this regard, Tether’s XAUT (gold token) offers a unique solution.

Tether’s strong financial backing is the biggest endorsement for XAUT. On New Year’s Eve 2025, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino announced that the company purchased 8,888 Bitcoin, worth about $780 million, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to over 96,000 BTC. More importantly, Tether bought 26 tons of gold in Q3 2025, with total gold holdings reaching 116 tons, ranking among the top 30 global gold holders. This not only directly supports XAUT but also demonstrates Tether’s financial strength as the dominant stablecoin issuer.

Currently, XAUT’s market cap is about $2.3 billion, reflecting ample market liquidity. Tether Gold is fully backed by physical gold stored in secure vaults, with each XAUT representing one troy ounce of physical gold, ensuring a 1:1 peg between the token and real gold.

The launch of Scudo reduces the entry barrier for gold allocation. In early 2026, Tether introduced a new accounting unit called Scudo for XAUT. One Scudo is defined as one-thousandth of a troy ounce of gold, equivalent to 0.001 XAUT, valued at approximately $4.4. This innovation simplifies the pricing method, solving the problem of handling long decimal places during transactions, and significantly lowers the threshold for entering gold asset allocation. For ordinary investors with limited funds, starting gold allocation with just a few dollars has become a reality.

XAUT’s leading coverage across major global trading platforms. According to CoinGecko data, XAUT is supported not only on mainstream CEXs like Bybit, OKX, and Bitget but also traded within DEX ecosystems such as Uniswap, Fluid, and Curve. Investors can engage in spot buying or leverage derivatives according to their risk appetite, making trading highly convenient.

When Will Gold Tokens Face a Correction?

Despite the optimistic outlook, investors must recognize the possibility of a gold correction. Based on UBS’s forecast, gold prices in the second half of 2026 may face pressure from $5,000 down to $4,800. What factors could trigger this correction?

Clarification of US policies. When the US Supreme Court issues a final ruling on tariffs or the new government policy framework becomes fully clear, geopolitical risk premiums will decrease, and safe-haven demand for gold may weaken accordingly.

US dollar appreciation expectations shift. If the US dollar appreciates against other currencies, gold priced in USD will face pressure. Unexpected adjustments in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path could also reshape investor logic regarding gold allocation.

Technical adjustments in precious metals. The significant volatility in December’s precious metals prices already reflects profit-taking needs. As more investors realize gains at historic highs, short-term technical corrections are likely unavoidable.

Gold Will Fall, But Allocation Logic Remains Unchanged

In summary, the answer to “Will gold fall?” is yes—long-term, gold prices approaching or reaching $5,000 will indeed face correction pressures. But this does not alter gold’s fundamental role as a core asset.

Against the backdrop of accelerating de-dollarization, ongoing central bank gold purchases, and the potential continuation of US dollar depreciation, the medium- to long-term direction of gold remains clear. A short-term correction of about 4% is within acceptable range compared to the 65% annual gain in 2025 and the risks of future fiat currency devaluation.

For investors with limited capital and lower risk tolerance, participating in gold allocation via XAUT and Scudo not only avoids the liquidity and storage costs associated with traditional gold buying but also allows enjoying the global gold bull market while experiencing the convenience of blockchain assets. Tether’s dominant position in the stablecoin industry, XAUT’s $2.3 billion market cap, and the low entry barrier provided by Scudo form the core logic of gold token allocation.

Finally, it’s important to emphasize: gold will fall, but the timing for allocating to gold tokens has never been easier. During the window where gold is trending upward long-term but may experience short-term corrections, a moderate allocation of XAUT might be the best choice for asset allocation in 2026.