Bitcoin selling pressure alert temporarily eased, but market risks still remain

According to the latest research from on-chain data analysis platform Glassnode, the pace of long-term Bitcoin holders’ distribution has significantly slowed down. This sign was once considered an important warning signal of market overheating. Currently, Bitcoin is hovering around $89.70K, down from last year’s high, but the key question is: does the easing of this selling pressure mean that market risks have been alleviated?

Long-term holders’ sell-off sharply reduced, distribution wave comes to an end

Glassnode defines “long-term holders” as wallet addresses holding coins for more than 5 months. Data shows that when Bitcoin reached its all-time high of over $100,000 last year, this group of long-term investors was selling over 100,000 coins weekly, creating significant profit-taking pressure. However, since the beginning of this year, weekly distribution has dropped sharply to 12,800 coins, a decline of over 87%.

In its latest report, Glassnode states: “This convergence phenomenon indicates that, although profit-taking still exists in the market, its intensity has become much milder compared to the previous wave of collective distribution.” This undoubtedly provides more room for subsequent rebounds, implying that the warning signals of direct selling pressure from long-term holders are weakening.

Historical resistance zones still pose difficult hurdles

Although selling pressure has eased, Bitcoin’s path forward is still not smooth. Currently, the trading range is between $93,000 and $110,000, and this “historical disaster zone” has repeatedly acted as a kill zone for rebounds since November last year. Whenever Bitcoin reaches the lower end of this range, it encounters new seller pressure, leading to structural rebound failures.

Glassnode analysis suggests that to achieve a complete reversal of the major trend, the market still needs to fully digest the chips held by long-term holders, which is a necessary prerequisite for building new highs. In other words, the warning signals of distribution easing are not yet fully confirmed, and breaking through the resistance zone remains a key test of market strength.

External risk factors cannot be ignored

In addition to internal chip distribution challenges, Glassnode also reminds investors to pay attention to external variables. If tensions between the US and Iran escalate, it could trigger risk-off sentiment in global markets, putting pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. In the short term, a correction risk cannot be ruled out. Therefore, although the warning signals from long-term holders’ distribution have eased, market vigilance still needs to be maintained.