On January 24, 2026, at 13:50 (UTC+8), SOL is quoted at approximately $127.8 USD, with a 24-hour fluctuation of 125.3-129.7, a slight decline of about 0.8%. Trading volume is sluggish, the daily chart shows a downward channel at the lower boundary, linked with BTC's weak oscillation, leaning bearish but without panic selling.

1. Key Levels and Structure

- Support: 125.5 (intraday strong support / lower boundary of the channel), 120.0 (mid-term key), 118.0 (strong defense)
- Resistance: 129.5-130.0 (intraday), 133.0 (former support turned resistance), 138.0 (mid-term)
- Structure: After the high of 148 in mid-January, the price has been in a descending channel, with lows moving lower and highs retreating, breaking the bullish structure; currently consolidating around 128, near the channel's lower boundary and previous dense chip zones, with repeated tests of bulls and bears.

2. Indicator Signals (4h / Daily)

- RSI (Daily): approximately 38-42, neutral leaning weak, no oversold, weak downward decline is not panic
- MACD (4h): mild contraction of the green bars, bearish momentum slowing, no emotional dump, leaning towards range-bound weak consolidation
- KDJ (Daily): sluggish downward movement at low levels, rebounds mainly for technical correction, not trend reversal
- Volume: 24h trading volume is shrinking, insufficient buying pressure, persistent selling pressure, high probability of continued oscillation

3. Bull and Bear Scenarios and Strategies

- Bull Trigger: volume breakout above 130.0, target 133.0-138.0, stop loss below 128.0
- Bear Trigger: break below 125.5 with volume, target 120.0-118.0, stop loss above 127.0
- Range Trading Strategy: within 125.5-130.0, go short at high, long at low, quick in and out, position size ≤ 3%, strict stop loss

4. Risk Warning

- The downward channel has not been broken; the weak pattern is hard to change, beware of false signals
- Linked with BTC volatility; macro or sudden news can trigger breakdowns, implement proper risk control
- The above is technical analysis and does not constitute investment advice.