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Tonight's Intel earnings call gave me a chill down my spine."
No one expected that just after the earnings call was concluded, Intel's stock price plummeted over 11% in after-hours trading. On the surface, Q4 results still exceeded expectations, but the fatal flaw was hidden in the guidance—the company's own forecast for the next quarter showed revenue and profit both below market estimates. More importantly, CEO Chen Liwu personally admitted during the meeting: “Our chip yield and manufacturing level still do not meet my standards.” This statement made everyone who was hoping that the AI wave would boost Intel's server chip sales feel uneasy. It turns out the issue isn't demand; it's that their own factories are "dropping the ball," unable to produce enough qualified chips, watching helplessly as orders might not be fulfilled.
A friend pointed out the core issue: Intel's biggest fear now isn't technological lag but the collapse of "execution capability." The CEO repeatedly emphasized the need to improve execution, which clearly indicates major problems within the internal manufacturing process. This directly hampers their ability to stock up for seasonal demand, leading to such a weak outlook for the first quarter. Think about it—last year, the stock price surged 84%, and the market bet on a full recovery. Now, the yield problem is like a cold shower, waking up many people.
Just thinking about the 84% increase in 2025 makes it clear that this "recovery" is really a bit of a stretch for Intel. In the chip industry, do you think that mastering manufacturing yield—this "fundamental skill"—is more critical than chasing cutting-edge designs?