#黄金白银再创新高

History always repeats itself
Today’s Gold Price and Rise & Fall Analysis (January 25, 2026)
I. Key Price Data
1. International Gold Prices
- London Gold Spot: $4986.5/ounce (+0.31%), approaching the $5000 mark
- New York COMEX Gold Futures: $4977/ounce (+0.91%), hitting a new all-time high
2. Domestic Gold Prices
- Shanghai Gold Exchange (AU9999): approximately 1118 RMB/gram, intra-day oscillating upward
- Shanghai Gold Main Continuous Contract: 1121.16 RMB/gram (up 18.3 RMB from yesterday)
- Retail Brand Gold Jewelry: Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang, and other mainstream brands around 1542-1548 RMB/gram, up over 200 RMB/gram from the beginning of the month
- Water Bay Wholesale Price: approximately 1274 RMB/gram (more than 260 RMB difference from retail price)
II. Drivers of Rise & Fall
1. Long-term Support
- Central Bank Continuous Gold Purchases: Many central banks (including China’s) have increased gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, reaching historic highs; in 2025, global official gold purchases exceeded 220 tons
- Weakening US Dollar Credit: US Dollar Index fell below 101.5, RMB exchange rate rebounded within 7, reducing the cost of holding gold
2. Short-term Catalysts
- Fed Rate Cut Expectations: Market expects a rate cut cycle to begin in March (CME futures show an 87% probability), with the 10-year US Treasury yield dropping to 1.82%
- Risk Aversion Rising: Geopolitical uncertainties (such as US-Iran tensions, US government debt pressures) and sluggish global economic recovery boost safe-haven demand
III. Potential Risks
1. Market Congestion: Concentration of bullish funds has significantly increased, and profit-taking by speculative funds may trigger a phased correction
2. Policy Regulation Risks: Exchanges may implement margin limit measures on precious metals to curb excessive speculation
3. Economic Data Fluctuations: If US inflation or employment data exceed expectations, the Fed’s rate cut pace may slow down
IV. Market Outlook
- Institutional Views: UBS expects gold prices to hit $5000/ounce in the first half of the year; Goldman Sachs and others project an annual increase of up to 23%
- Technical Level: $4900/ounce is a key support level; if maintained, the upward trend may continue
Warm reminder: Gold prices are influenced by multiple factors such as the global macro environment and geopolitical situations. Volatility risks are high. Investment decisions should be rational, avoiding blind chasing of highs.