Trump's threat to impose tariffs on Canada and China is basically his old trick: first issuing tough words to create panic, then negotiating for higher demands at the bargaining table. When a real trade war breaks out, it’s not beneficial for the US itself, so it’s likely just loud noise with little substance.

The intervention of the US, China, and Japan in the yen is indeed worth paying attention to. If large-scale capital is really withdrawn for arbitrage, it would not be good news for the entire risk asset market. However, the yen’s current position does not yet warrant intervention.
The 80% probability of a US government shutdown is indeed ridiculously high, but this time it’s not a full shutdown. Historically, markets tend to rebound after each shutdown because issues are eventually resolved.
Regarding the decline in BTC, I think it’s more about leveraged funds de-risking rather than a fundamental problem. The policy expectations since Trump took office are still there. Once these short-term noises pass, the market will still rise. The sharp drop on Sunday and Monday is normal; when liquidity is poor, any small movement can be amplified.