#黄金白银再创新高

There is a possibility of a technical correction in gold this week (January 27 - February 2), but the extent of the correction may be limited. The core supporting factors remain unchanged:
# 1. Short-term correction risk signals
1. Technical correction after overbought conditions: Spot gold has gained 18% since the beginning of the year, with a single-day surge of over 2% on January 26, breaking through $5,100. The rapid short-term increase may trigger profit-taking. Institutions point out that current gold prices have already incorporated many optimistic expectations and are more sensitive to negative news.
2. Disruption of Federal Reserve policy expectations: If the Fed signals a slowdown in rate cuts this week (e.g., hawkish stance in the January FOMC statement), it could weaken the upward momentum of gold. CICC warns that the risk of the US economy "temporarily overheating" may trigger a market correction in policy easing expectations.
# 2. Long-term support factors remain unchanged
1. Geopolitical and safe-haven demand: Disputes between the US and Europe over Greenland, Middle East tensions, and other risk events are still fermenting. The trend of global central banks increasing gold holdings continues (e.g., the Polish central bank plans to add 150 tons of gold), providing underlying support for gold prices.
2. Weakening of US dollar credit and de-dollarization: The US dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has fallen to 56%. Many countries are accelerating the sale of US Treasuries and shifting to gold assets (e.g., Danish pension funds divesting US Treasuries), reinforcing gold's long-term allocation value.
# 3. Institutional views and operational suggestions
Increased short-term volatility: Dongxing Securities expects gold to fluctuate between $4,800 and $5,200. While institutions like Goldman Sachs and UBS remain optimistic in the long term (target price of $5,400), they warn of high-level volatility.
- Focus on event catalysts: Pay close attention to the January FOMC statement, developments in geopolitical conflicts, and central bank gold purchase data.