The US Dollar Index fell to around 95.76, reaching a low not seen since 2022, and arriving at a critical point for dollar strength and weakness. The upcoming question is whether the US government will intervene or let it go. The once-trio of stocks, bonds, and currencies no longer exists. It now depends on which sector the US government chooses to support. Based on Trump's policies, the most likely scenario is support for US stocks, combined with fiscal measures and support from overseas buyers like Japan to defend US bonds. Meanwhile, the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve may intervene to temporarily slow down the dollar's depreciation. Once the Dollar Index effectively breaks below 96 and enters a weak dollar phase, it indicates a shift in macro direction from a monetary perspective to a fiscal one. The selling of dollar assets will increase, and bond market pressure will intensify. Tonight's FOMC meeting and Powell's speech are crucial. If hawkish comments suppress rate cut expectations, how will the market react? Very important.

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