✨The US federal government's budget expired on the night of January 30, 2026. The failure of Congress to pass the budget on time still risks a partial government shutdown. The parties have not agreed on a budget; there are heated debates in the Senate surrounding security and immigration policies. The current political uncertainty can increase risk premiums, putting pressure on the dollar in markets and weakening global investor confidence. Prediction markets indicate that the probability of a shutdown remains high (around 65-70%).
👀 An agreement has been reached between Democrats and Republicans that includes a two-week temporary funding extension for the DHS (Department of Homeland Security). This has temporarily postponed a widespread shutdown, but the full budget package has not yet been approved. While agreements exist, the fact that the Senate and House of Representatives have not approved the same text, and that the House is currently closed, strengthens the possibility of a partial shutdown. This shutdown may be limited to a few days, but the risk remains high.
✴️Some essential payments, such as Social Security and Medicare, will continue to process, but application processes may slow down or stop altogether.
✴️While some agencies, such as the FAA, will continue to operate, staff may not receive their salaries on time, and flight delays may occur.
✴️Some programs, such as NIH and research funding, may cease entirely.
#USGovernmentShutdownRisk 🤔