Combined with current market conditions and institutional analysis, the possibility of a sharp plunge in gold is low, but there is a risk of volatility in the short term.

1. Global central banks continue to buy gold Central banks around the world use gold as a key tool for diversifying their reserves, with global gold purchases reaching 1,045 tons in 2024, with China accounting for more than 20%. Poland and other countries have turned to "absolute tonnage" as the reserve target, reducing price sensitivity, and this structural demand has formed a rigid support.
2. U.S. credit and debt risk U.S. debt exceeded $35 trillion, the process of de-dollarization accelerated, and the attractiveness of U.S. dollar assets declined. At the same time, expectations of a Fed rate cut (starting as early as this quarter) could depress real yields and increase the allocation value of gold as an interest-free asset.
3. Geopolitical and policy uncertainty Geopolitical conflicts such as the Middle East, Russia and Ukraine continue, and the 2026 US midterm elections may exacerbate political volatility, and safe-haven demand will persist for a long time. Institutions generally believe that gold is a core asset to hedge against global governance risks and currency depreciation.