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Current situation Trend: On the 15-minute timeframe, a sharp "liquidation" is visible. The price has broken through all moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA30) from top to bottom, indicating a strong bearish impulse at the moment.
Indicators: MACD is deep in the negative zone, the histogram is red, confirming the strength of the decline.
Levels: The price touched the mark of 4,823.55, after which there was a slight rebound to 4,864.65.
Fundamental background for today
Today, January 30, a "black swan" of local scale occurred in the gold market. After yesterday's record around $5 500 – $5 600, the price plummeted by almost 8-10% within hours. Main reasons:
Dollar strengthening: The market reacts to news about the appointment of a new Fed chair and expectations of a tight monetary policy.
Profit-taking: Major players close positions after a vertical rise in January (gold increased by 20% in a month).
Forecast for the next 24 hours
The market is extremely volatile. Most likely, one of two scenarios awaits us:
Scenario A (Consolidation): After such a powerful drop, the price usually "sits" in a sideways range. Support around 4,800 may hold, and the price will trade in the range of 4,800 – 4,950 until the end of the day.
Scenario B (Continuation of correction): If panic does not subside and the price settles below 4,800, the next target is the psychological level of 4,700, where a strong support zone is located.
Summary: Entering a "Long" position right now is extremely risky — "knives" are still flying. Entering a "Short" is too late, as the main movement has already occurred. The best approach is to wait for the chart to stabilize (when candles become small, and MACD begins to turn).
#XAUUSDT