Yesterday during the live broadcast, I and my friends took defensive long positions around the 96,200 level for Bitcoin and approximately 2,280 for Ethereum as Bitcoin dropped. The results are good so far, and it seems we've stopped the decline.

Looking back, the reasons for this round of decline are quite complex. It seems like everyone is clearing their positions at the same time, and no one dares to buy the dip. This is all influenced by the uncertainty of U.S. monetary policy.
Whether it's the Federal Reserve's new nominee Karen's hawkish monetary stance, the U.S. government shutdown, or the fermentation of issues in October and November, none of these seem sufficient to cause a collapse in the global financial markets. Just looking at naked candlesticks without considering economic, military, and historical analysis is irresponsible.
The game between East and West, especially the ideological struggle of the left-wing governance, the strengthened control over resources and energy. Trump's two monetary reservoirs—Bitcoin and gold—plus the mid-term elections in November, all lead me to believe that:
1. Everyone should not panic; we won't be finished. Control your positions and start gradually accumulating. Let others get liquidated; we just need to build positions, buy in batches. In this cycle, we will only invest in mainstream coins, platform tokens, and some ETFs expected to perform well, because even if the market consolidates at the bottom in the second half of the year, many altcoins won't rise again.
The next bull market will definitely be driven by policy stacking and stricter regulation implementation. Additionally, tokenization of U.S. stocks and precious metals—namely RWA—is gradually enriching the market with more targeted products. In the future, on-chain "dog fighting" (speculative pump-and-dump schemes) will likely become rare, and the scene of altcoins soaring together will be hard to see again. I am optimistic about the future, not because of congestion, but because the November mid-term elections will surely bring another surge in the financial markets. Trump's final dance needs capital and funding support. Elon Musk has also shaken hands with Trump again. This year will definitely not be dull. When whales on the chain start to short and then go long again, it doesn't matter if we are holding spot at this position—if Bitcoin drops to 50,000, it’s just giving us cheaper chips. Ethereum will be fine, rest assured. It will take off by the end of the year at the latest, as it is the infrastructure that cannot be replaced at the moment. I believe the short-term bottom won't break 67,000 even if the U.S. stock market crashes on Monday. The limit I see is around 71,700, where a rebound will start, or the recent low won't be broken again. I predict a rebound to around 88,888 in February with continued consolidation, and after May, a deeper bottom around 53,200.
It's definitely not the time to bottom fish. I suggest everyone trade with a short-term mindset. For example, with each trade, set a stop loss—if Bitcoin gains 500 points, reduce positions; with a 200-point stop loss, play cautiously. Do not use martingale averaging in batches. Spot trading doesn't matter much; recent variables are too unpredictable. Be cautious—it's the key to longevity. Later, I will update some levels, so everyone must pay attention to safety. Keep some useful positions for mid-year consolidation and bottom-fishing later.