Writing during the current extremely bearish market is definitely a time for planting seeds. Many people are pulling out their seedlings and waiting for new highs to come back. The common retail investors are repeatedly killed by their own manipulative operations. Why do I firmly believe that dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is better than simply trying to catch the bottom? Besides a single formula, it is only applicable to Bitcoin: Step 1, buy 500 days before the halving; Step 2, delete the app; Step 3, sell 500 days after the halving; Step 4, a new cycle begins. Repeat this cycle. However, now the Bitcoin bear market's declines are getting smaller each time. Maybe in the future, the bear cycles will gradually become less severe. This makes buying easier to miss out on opportunity costs, but it definitely allows for consistent DCA. You can DCA at any time, greatly reducing the risk of buying at the peak and getting caught in a sharp drop, while fully leveraging Bitcoin's long-term upward trend and volatile nature. Simply put, you don't need to guess the bottom, time the market, watch the charts constantly, or have an explosive mentality to have a high probability of making money over the long term (3–10 years). Why is DCA so suitable for the crypto market? Unlike US stocks, Bitcoin's bull runs are short, and bear markets are long. Major surges usually last only a few months to a year, with most of the time spent in consolidation or decline. Going all-in at the high points is risky; DCA allows you to buy most of your positions at lower prices. Bitcoin's extreme volatility means you can buy more at lows and less at highs, naturally lowering your average cost. This prevents the repeated mistakes of hesitating to buy after a decline or chasing highs after a rally. Let me give some examples:

From July 2017 to July 2024, investing 3,000 RMB per month, total investment: 3,000 RMB × 85 months ≈ 255,000 RMB. During this period, there were the 2018 major bear market, the 2020 pandemic crash, the 2021 bull market, the 2022 major bear market, and the 2023–2024 rebound. The Bitcoin accumulated is worth between 500,000 and 2,000,000 RMB, with gains exceeding five times.

If you started DCA at the peak in November 2021 (around $69,000), you would have immediately entered a major bear market. Suppose you invest $1,000 monthly from November 2021 to February 2025, about 39 months. Total investment: $39,000. During this time, Bitcoin dropped from $69,000 to $15,000. Now, assuming it fluctuates between $70,000 and $100,000, your average cost would be around $32,000–$42,000. Even if you started DCA near the top, as long as you hold for 3–5 years, you are likely to make a profit. This is the most brutal and impressive aspect of DCA: it spreads out the pain of buying high and amplifies the joy of buying low. It uses time to buy space, discipline to avoid timing, and long-term faith to endure short-term pain.

I have an account set up to DCA for 20 years, regardless of market conditions, never stopping. While I will wait for opportunities to catch the bottom, my DCA account will always be buying. If you're confused, save this article and watch it repeatedly when you have free time. No need to time the market—just enter the exchange now and DCA monthly, withdrawing once a month. Last year, I was firmly bearish at $110,000 because the cycle had run its course. But after today, I am confident to buy and be bullish for the next three years because a new cycle is coming. Fiat currency will eventually suffer inflation, and Bitcoin will replace gold. These great pioneers will surely become wealthy through faith.