#加密市场隔夜V型震荡 Crypto Market Shock V-Shaped Reversal: Bitcoin Rebounds from $72,000 to Fight Back, Testing the Faith in "Digital Gold" Amid Macro Storms

This morning, the cryptocurrency market experienced a thrilling "V-shaped shock." Bitcoin surged from a low of $72,945 to $75,953 within just a few hours. Ethereum also experienced intense volatility between $2,110 and $2,340, ultimately stabilizing at $2,241. This fluctuation not only tests investors' nerves but also reveals the complex interplay between the current crypto market and macroeconomic environment.

Market Snapshot: Structural Differentiation Amid Bloodshed
According to market data, the total crypto market capitalization evaporated by 3.3% in the past 24 hours, falling to $2.648 trillion. Among mainstream assets, Bitcoin declined by 3.37%, Ethereum by 4.3%, and SOL broke below the $100 psychological level, now trading at $97.8. However, the real heavy losses are in the altcoin market: ZAMA led the decline with a 22.2% drop, while tokens like EUL, SOLV, and HUMA each fell over 14%. This "mainstream slow decline, altcoin collapse" pattern is typical of risk assets de-leveraging—when market liquidity tightens, high Beta assets are hit first.
Even more intriguing is the correlation between the US stock market and crypto. Overnight, the Dow Jones fell 0.3%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.8%, and the Nasdaq plunged 1.4%. PayPal plummeted 20.3% due to disappointing earnings guidance, and tech giants like Microsoft and Nvidia also suffered. Crypto-related stocks also came under pressure: Strategy (MSTR) down 4.56%, Coinbase (COIN) down 4.36%, and BitGo Holdings (BTGO) fell 5.86%. This synchronized decline across markets confirms that cryptocurrencies are now deeply integrated into the global risk asset system, and the narrative of them as "safe-haven assets" faces serious challenges.

Macro Storm Focus: Trump Tariff Policies and the Fed's "Prisoner's Dilemma"

The trigger for this sharp decline is directly linked to the uncertainty surrounding Trump administration's tariff policies. Multiple institutions analyze that Trump plans to impose tariffs of 10%-20% on all imports, with tariffs on Chinese goods possibly reaching 60%. If implemented, this would significantly raise US inflation and force the Fed to maintain higher interest rates for longer.
However, market panic is driven not just by tariffs but also by the collapse of policy credibility. A crypto venture capitalist bluntly stated, "Bitcoin has become tied to this administration, now paying the price for being linked to (the Republican) party." The previously hyped "US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" narrative appears fragile in the face of the tariff storm.
Regarding the Federal Reserve, although 100 basis points of rate cuts have been accumulated by 2025, the latest FOMC minutes reveal that concerns about slightly elevated inflation remain. More concerning is the systematic selling by long-term holders—according to K33 Research, since early 2023, the number of Bitcoin held for at least two years has decreased by 1.6 million coins, worth about $14 billion. When ETF inflows cannot absorb this selling pressure, market supply and demand quickly tilt to the downside.

The Secret Behind the V-Shaped Reversal: Technical Bounce or Trend Reversal?
Despite the intense volatility, Bitcoin's rapid rebound near $72,000 shows strong support at that level. Looking back at 2025, Bitcoin once fell to $74,508 due to tariff conflicts but then gradually recovered amid easing policies and rate cut expectations.
This V-shaped reversal may be driven by several factors:
1. Oversold technical correction: RSI indicates severe short-term oversold conditions, triggering algorithmic and quant fund buy programs.
2. Short covering in futures markets: High leverage perpetual contracts triggered liquidations during the plunge, and profit-taking by short sellers created a reverse push.
3. Spot ETF support: Although fund inflows slowed, spot ETFs from institutions like BlackRock still provide a bottom support, preventing a free-fall. However, caution is needed: this rebound may merely be a technical correction in a bear market, not a trend reversal.
Historical data shows that after the S&P 500 drops more than 1.5% in a single day in 2025, the next day typically rebounds by 1.1%. But Bitcoin often does not follow—during the V-shaped reversal in US stocks, Bitcoin instead dropped sharply by 5%, with a weekly decline of 9.14%.

Investor Takeaway: Finding Certainty in Uncertainty
The current market is caught in a three-way struggle involving macro policies, capital flows, and narrative reconstruction:
Short-term: Tariff policy uncertainty will continue to suppress risk assets, and crypto market volatility may remain high.
Mid-term: If the Fed pauses rate cuts due to inflation pressures, the high interest rate environment could increase US government debt burdens, potentially strengthening Bitcoin's "digital gold" safe-haven narrative—provided the market regains confidence in that story.
Long-term: States like Texas have begun allocating to Bitcoin ETFs, and institutionalization is deepening. Meanwhile, retail interest is shifting toward prediction markets like Polymarket, with a clear trend of capital flow diversion.

For investors, position management is more important than timing. Until the macro storm subsides, maintaining a moderate cash ratio and avoiding high leverage may be the survival rule through the cycle.

What do you think about this V-shaped reversal? Is it a bottom-fishing opportunity or a continuation of the decline? Share your views in the comments!