#当前行情抄底还是观望？

Are you currently bottom fishing or waiting on the sidelines? My strategies and thoughts

The recent market has definitely been heart-pounding, with BTC breaking below the key support at 74,000, altcoins generally pulling back, and the Fear & Greed Index plummeting. Market sentiment has shifted from euphoria to hesitation. At such times, blindly following the trend can easily turn you into a “chives” (a rookie or inexperienced trader), while rational analysis is key to seizing opportunities. I choose to buy in stages, but not blindly—my decisions are based on the following points:

1️⃣ Bottom Signal: Where is the bottom?

I believe BTC’s cyclical bottom may be in the 68,000-70,000 range, rather than a sharp drop. Reasons:

· On-chain data support: Around 70,000 is a concentrated accumulation zone for institutions, with many long-term holders near this cost basis, creating both psychological and technical support.
· Macro liquidity has not reversed: Although the Federal Reserve’s rate cut cycle has been delayed, easing expectations remain for the year, and funds have not exited the crypto market—it's just short-term profit-taking.
· Key indicators: The MVRV ratio has fallen from high levels, derivatives funding rates have returned to neutral, and the market overheating risk has been released, paving the way for a healthy rebound.

My strategy:
Place orders in three batches at 70,000, 68,000, and 65,000. Increase position by 5% each time the price drops. Strictly limit each order to no more than 10% of total funds. If it falls below 65,000, pause the plan and reassess the trend.

2️⃣ Intelligence tracking: Key factors currently impacting the market

· Macro factors: Repeated US inflation data and resilient employment markets have delayed rate cuts until the second half of the year. The US dollar’s short-term strength suppresses risk assets. But in the medium to long term, global liquidity expansion under high debt pressure remains inevitable.
· Industry insiders:
· ETF capital flows: Recently, Grayscale’s GBTC selling pressure has eased. If new ETF inflows resume, it could catalyze a rebound.
· Regulatory rumors: The US election year intensifies policy game-playing, and the SEC’s attitude toward Ethereum ETFs will be the next market trigger.
· Market sentiment: Retail panic indices (like FGI) are approaching “fear” territory. Historical data shows that staged buying at this point has a higher success rate.

3️⃣ Contrarian dark horses: These coins are worth watching

During broad market declines, assets that resist falling often have potential alpha:

· AI sector: $RNDR, $FET
Strong narrative around computing power demand, institutional holdings remain stable during pullbacks, and AI + blockchain integration remains a core track in 2024.
· Modular public chains: $TIA, $MANTA
Modular technology stacks continue to attract capital, and ecosystem airdrops (like TIA staking derivatives) support prices.
· BTC ecosystem: $STX
Bitcoin Layer 2 narratives are just beginning. After the decline in inscriptions’ popularity, more sustainable infrastructure projects are gaining value.