In-Depth Analysis: How Tariff Policy Concerns and Continuous ETF Capital Outflows Affect Bitcoin Price Trends

Recently, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a significant correction, with market leader Bitcoin’s price under pressure and once falling below the key psychological level of $71,000. According to Gate market data, as of February 5, 2026, Bitcoin is trading at $70,520.5, down 7.31% in the past 24 hours, with a 24-hour trading volume of $1.65 billion. This price decline is not an isolated event but is driven by a combination of macroeconomic concerns and internal industry capital flows, with uncertainties around tariff policies and ongoing outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs becoming focal points of market attention.

Macro Clouds: Tariff Policies Spark Global Risk Asset Concerns

Market analysis generally agrees that the recent resurgence of tariffs and trade protectionism rhetoric worldwide is a significant factor suppressing risk asset sentiment, including Bitcoin. Fears of a new round of trade friction among major economies have heightened uncertainty in financial markets. Investors tend to seek safe havens or hold cash in such macroeconomic uncertainty, leading to capital withdrawals from stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other high-risk sectors.

This “Risk-Off” pattern has been confirmed by the synchronized decline in traditional tech stocks and the cryptocurrency market. When concerns about global economic growth prospects rise, expectations of liquidity tightening tend to spread across all high-risk asset classes. As a representative of “digital gold” and frontier technology, Bitcoin’s price naturally struggles to remain unaffected. This correlation reminds us that the cryptocurrency market is deeply integrated into the global financial system and increasingly sensitive to macro policies.

Internal Pressure: Outflows from Spot Bitcoin ETF Intensify Selling Pressure

In addition to macro factors, internal industry capital movements have also exerted direct pressure on the market. Since mid-January, the US spot Bitcoin ETF has experienced significant capital outflows. According to statistics, the net outflow has reached several billion dollars. This ongoing withdrawal of funds creates substantial selling pressure.

ETF capital flows are an important indicator of institutional and large investor sentiment. Continued outflows may indicate that some early investors are taking profits or becoming more cautious about short-term market prospects. Large amounts of Bitcoin sold through ETF channels directly increase supply pressure, which was one of the direct catalysts for Bitcoin’s recent correction from its all-time high of $126,080 and falling below the $71,000 support level.

Market Data and Technical Analysis

According to Gate’s latest market data, Bitcoin’s current market capitalization is $1.56 trillion, with a market share of 56.80%. Amid sharp price fluctuations, its price has oscillated between $69,925 and $76,270.7 over the past 24 hours, indicating intense battles between bulls and bears.

From a technical perspective, the $70,000 level is a critical psychological and technical support zone. Historical data shows this area has repeatedly served as a rebound point or a mid-journey for declines. Currently, the market is closely testing the support strength of this zone. If it can stabilize and build momentum here, market sentiment may recover; conversely, if it breaks below, further downside could open up, with the next key support around $68,000.

Gate Data Outlook: Long-Term Perspective on Bitcoin

Despite short-term correction pressures, longer-term market analysis models still offer a positive outlook for Bitcoin. Based on comprehensive data models from Gate Research Institute (for reference only, not investment advice):

• The average price forecast for 2026 is $78,559.7, with a volatility range possibly between $58,134.17 and $85,630.07. This suggests that from current levels, there is still potential upside within the year.
• Longer-term projections indicate that by 2031, the median forecast for Bitcoin’s price could reach $163,467.6, with an upper bound even up to $210,873.2. This reflects continued optimism about its role as a digital asset and store of value.

These forecasts reflect confidence in Bitcoin’s fundamentals, such as halving cycles and increasing adoption, but also serve as a reminder that short- and medium-term price movements are driven by multiple complex factors, and Bitcoin’s price trajectory has never been linear.

Summary

Overall, Bitcoin’s recent drop below $71,000 results from the combined effects of macro tariff concerns and internal ETF capital outflows. It demonstrates the increasing interconnectedness of the cryptocurrency market with global financial dynamics as it matures.

For investors, in the current volatile environment, it is especially important to closely monitor macroeconomic policy developments, ETF capital flows, and other key data points, while combining reliable technical analysis. Gate provides real-time, accurate Bitcoin market data and in-depth insights to help you make more informed decisions amid global market changes.

Markets always move through volatility. After short-term uncertainties subside, whether Bitcoin can leverage its strong network effects and long-term value narrative to regain upward momentum will be a key focus in the coming months.

All market data and price forecasts above are sourced from Gate’s latest information as of February 5, 2026, for reference only. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; please conduct independent research and exercise caution before investing.