$9 billion Bitcoin whale sell-off: "Quantum threat" or "wealth inheritance"?

Galaxy Digital Research Director Alex Thorn explicitly stated on the X platform that this $9 billion large transaction was not executed due to concerns related to quantum computing and Bitcoin. Recently, during market turbulence, Bitcoin briefly fell below $71,000. According to Gate data, it is currently trading at $70,433.4.

Clarification of the Event and Market Misunderstanding

On February 3, 2026, Galaxy Digital officially denied a circulating market rumor that its client sold $9 billion worth of Bitcoin out of fear of quantum computing threats.

Research Director Alex Thorn clarified on social media that quantum computing was not the motivation behind this transaction. This denial responded to circulating speculation, which intensified after the earnings call. Members of the crypto community had speculated that a high-net-worth client sold due to “very concerns about Bitcoin’s quantum resistance.” These comments caused further unease in an already volatile market.

CEO Mike Novogratz described the quantum computing threat as a “big excuse,” implying that investors used it to explain their selling behavior, especially when Bitcoin showed signs of weakness.

The Reality of Quantum Threats

Potential breakthroughs in quantum computing technology have long been a concern for cryptographers and have recently begun to manifest in asset management practices. These concerns are not unfounded.

Industry analysis indicates that Shor’s algorithm could indeed break the signatures protecting Bitcoin addresses’ private keys, while Grover’s algorithm could surpass the computational capacity of current networks. Currently, quantum computers have not reached 1,000 qubits, and it is estimated that millions of qubits would be needed to compromise Bitcoin’s encryption.

Adam Back, CEO of Bitcoin technology company Blockstream, pointed out that quantum computing still has at least 20 to 40 years before it poses a threat to Bitcoin. The Ethereum Foundation has officially prioritized post-quantum security and established a dedicated post-quantum team. For Bitcoin, proposals like BIP-360 are under discussion to introduce quantum-resistant signature options for addresses potentially vulnerable to quantum attacks.

The True Cause of the Large-Scale Sell-off

According to Galaxy Digital, the client from the “Satoshi Nakamoto era” sold 80,000 BTC for estate planning purposes. These Bitcoins have been dormant since 2011. The scale of this transaction makes it one of the largest nominal transactions in industry history.

Analysts note that such a large position would require a lengthy unwinding process, which exerted downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price in the second half of 2025. Although this was not a recent transaction (reported last year), it is viewed as a symbolic event that reignited discussions among early Bitcoin holders about shaken confidence. Novogratz suggested that the sale was part of a recent broad profit-taking trend among early adopters. Despite the community’s long-standing advocacy of “HODLing” to withstand volatility, this belief appears to be waning.

Galaxy Digital reported a net loss of $482 million in Q4 2025, with an annual loss of $241 million. The company stated that the tough market environment and the complexity of facilitating such large transactions were the main reasons for the losses.

Market Impact and Bitcoin Trends

This sell-off occurred amid significant volatility in the crypto market. Bitcoin experienced a 30% plunge in October 2025, triggering $19 billion in liquidations. As of now, based on Gate data, Bitcoin is trading at $70,433.4, with a market cap of $1.56 trillion, and a 24-hour trading volume of $1.65 billion.

Market forecasts suggest that Bitcoin’s average price in 2026 could reach $78,559.7, fluctuating between a low of $58,134.17 and a high of $85,630.07. By 2031, Bitcoin could be valued at $210,873.2, representing a potential return of +108% compared to current levels. Novogratz told Bloomberg that the price decline might be nearing a bottom. He added that the continued progress of the US Market Structure Bill CLARITY could help revive the crypto market.

Industry Outlook and Investment Trends

Institutional analysts hold differing views on Bitcoin’s trajectory in 2026. Standard Chartered lowered its year-end target price from $300,000 to $150,000. Bernstein, in its latest report, stated that the crypto market remains in a short-term bear cycle but expects a reversal within 2026, with Bitcoin bottoming around $60,000.

Market expert Andre Dragosch pointed out that macro factors are shifting. Precious metals and industrial metals are rising together, signaling re-inflation, and this aligns with rising ISM manufacturing indices. Dragosch emphasized that this macro environment historically supports Bitcoin bull markets. He said Bitcoin’s macro sensitivity is returning, with long-term holders reducing selling pressure, while institutions continue to absorb multiple times the new supply via ETPs, ETFs, and corporate treasury holdings.

Regarding investment trends, Galaxy’s Novogratz noted that leverage in the system has been significantly reduced. This suggests that the “HODL frenzy” among early adopters may be shifting toward a more mature, institutional-level allocation phase. Despite the staggering scale of the $9 billion sell-off, Novogratz emphasized that leverage in the system has been greatly diminished. This market structure shift could mean future volatility will differ, and the market may become more resilient.

The debate triggered by concerns over quantum computing has not prevented Bitcoin from moving toward broader institutional adoption. Bitcoin’s circulating market cap on the Gate exchange has reached $1.56 trillion, accounting for 56.80% of the entire market. Meanwhile, over one-third of the more than 21 million Bitcoin addresses exposed their public keys on the blockchain, facing potential quantum threats. However, modern Bitcoin addresses hash their public keys, exposing them only when funds are spent. With proposals like BIP-360 advancing and institutional investors continuing to focus on Bitcoin, the ecosystem is preparing for any future challenges, including those from quantum computing.