JPMorgan: Bitcoin's Long-Term Outlook Reaches $266,000, Why Is Its Appeal Now Surpassing Gold?

JPMorgan Chase explicitly states in its latest report that, after volatility adjustments, for Bitcoin’s market capitalization to match the approximately $8 trillion invested in gold by the private sector, its price would need to reach $266,000 per coin. This is not a short-term target for the current market; analysts believe “reaching this target this year is unrealistic,” but it reveals Bitcoin’s long-term structural potential as “digital gold.” The core logic is that since October last year, the excellent performance of gold relative to Bitcoin, combined with a sharp increase in gold’s volatility itself, is causing a fundamental change in their risk-reward profiles.

Authority Endorsement: Wall Street Giants’ Valuation Models

This JPMorgan report, led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and his analysis team, centers on a volatility-adjusted market cap benchmarking model. They estimate that the total value of gold held in the private sector (excluding central banks) is about $8 trillion. This serves as their baseline for comparison.

The key indicator of change is the volatility ratio between Bitcoin and gold. This ratio has dropped sharply from the historically common 5-10 times to about 1.5 times, hitting a record low. This means Bitcoin’s price volatility has shifted from being far higher than gold to only 50% above gold. In traditional asset pricing frameworks, volatility is a core risk metric; a significant decline in volatility implies a substantial increase in risk-adjusted attractiveness of the asset.

Based on this, analysts derive that to reach a market cap of $8 trillion—equivalent to private gold investments—Bitcoin’s price would need to rise to $266,000.

Historic Turning Point: Bitcoin Volatility Approaching Gold

To understand the deeper significance of this forecast, one must grasp the technical core: “volatility ratio dropping to 1.5.” This is not just a numeric change; it could signal a structural shift in Bitcoin’s market characteristics. Historical data shows Bitcoin’s annualized volatility has long hovered around 72%, while gold’s volatility is only about 16%. Extremely high volatility has been the biggest psychological and technical barrier for institutional investors to allocate to Bitcoin.

Systematic declines in volatility are often associated with market maturity: more diverse participants, deeper liquidity, more rational leverage use, and increased institutional holdings stabilizing the market. When Bitcoin’s volatility ratio with gold falls to 1.5, it suggests that, within a portfolio theory framework, Bitcoin’s allocation weight can be significantly increased. Funds that previously could only hold Bitcoin symbolically due to high volatility may now establish substantial positions.

Practical Challenges: Short-term Pressures vs. Long-term Potential

JPMorgan’s long-term optimistic outlook contrasts sharply with Bitcoin’s short-term pressures, which is why the report emphasizes that “this year’s target is unrealistic.”

As of February 6, 2026, according to Gate data, Bitcoin’s price is approximately $65,057.1, significantly below JPMorgan’s estimated production cost of about $87,000. Production costs have traditionally been viewed as a “soft price floor”; if prices remain below this level for an extended period, it could force inefficient miners to exit, resetting the cost structure.

Additionally, spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs continue to see net outflows, indicating widespread negative sentiment among both institutional and retail investors. The market’s short-term weakness and long-term value re-evaluation are not mutually exclusive. Analysts see the current contraction in stablecoin supply as a “natural and lagging response” to the overall crypto market cap shrinkage, rather than a sign of large-scale capital withdrawal.

Institutional Perspectives: Wall Street Consensus and Divergences on Bitcoin

JPMorgan is not the only Wall Street institution paying attention to Bitcoin’s long-term potential, but expectations and timeframes vary among firms.

Unlike JPMorgan’s view, some analysts believe the “digital gold” narrative for Bitcoin has yet to be fully validated. Studies indicate that during crises, Bitcoin’s correlation with tech stocks can sometimes exceed that with gold, and its performance resembles more a “high-elasticity risk asset” or “digital liquidity” rather than a pure safe haven.

Market Linkages: How Gold Performance Affects Crypto Markets

JPMorgan’s report tightly links Bitcoin with gold; understanding gold market trends is crucial for assessing crypto market sentiment. Data from the same day shows that traditional precious metals are experiencing a broad correction.

Gold (XAUUSDT) is at $4,836.37, down 2.01% intraday; silver (XAGUSDT) fell even more, by 11.15%, to $72.63. The correction in precious metals, partly due to profit-taking after sharp gains, also confirms increased volatility. This rise in volatility provides the context for JPMorgan’s comparative analysis. When gold prices fluctuate sharply due to macro factors like geopolitical tensions and central bank gold purchases, its role as a stable safe-haven asset is somewhat diminished.

This opens theoretical space for assets like Bitcoin, which offer differentiated attributes. Bitcoin’s core advantages are its absolute scarcity, global liquidity, and censorship resistance—properties that are uniquely valuable in the digital age.

Practical Strategies: How Investors Can Interpret and Respond

In light of Wall Street’s grand expectations and the market’s cold reality, investors should focus on key signals to verify whether the long-term narrative is gradually unfolding.

Monitor ETF capital flows for signs of reversal. Continuous net outflows are a direct reflection of current market sentiment. Any sustained, large-scale inflow could be an early indicator of sentiment recovery and institutional re-entry.

Track Bitcoin’s actual volatility data. Whether the volatility ratio can stabilize at low levels or further decline is a core technical indicator for assessing Bitcoin market maturity and testing JPMorgan’s theoretical model.

Observe changes in mining hash rate and costs. Current prices have fallen below estimated production costs; watch whether this triggers significant adjustments in hash rate and where new, lower-cost support levels form.

From a longer-term perspective, developments like tokenization (bringing real-world assets on-chain) could fundamentally expand the overall crypto asset market and demand base, which many institutions see as the next key growth driver.

On the Bitcoin price chart, a virtual line representing the $87,000 production cost and a long-term trend line pointing to $266,000 form a large wedge. Miners are calculating breakeven points for electricity costs and coin prices, while ETF managers scrutinize daily capital flows.

Gold has proven itself over thousands of years as an ark in times of crisis, and Bitcoin’s mission is to build the first ark amid the digital flood. JPMorgan’s report provides a theoretical blueprint with a specified size, but the final form and timing depend on the entire crypto ecosystem building it brick by brick.