Vitalik rewrites L2 script: Ethereum scaling roadmap changes, ecosystem faces a critical turning point

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin recently expressed views on social media that have sent shockwaves through the crypto world, stating that the original Layer 2 (L2) roadmap centered around Rollup “is no longer applicable.”

This statement is widely interpreted as a major correction to the mainstream narrative of Ethereum over the past five years.

In 2020, Vitalik proposed a “Rollup-centric” scaling roadmap, viewing L2 as Ethereum’s “branded sharding.” At that time, Ethereum was deeply entrenched in the “noble chain” dilemma, with average transaction fees soaring to a historic peak of $53.16 in May 2021.

Roadmap Revision: Why Vitalik Changed His Stance Now

The Ethereum community is facing a fundamental strategic shift. In early February 2026, Vitalik Buterin explicitly stated: “The original vision of a Rollup-centric roadmap is no longer applicable.”

This marks a major turning point in Ethereum’s scaling strategy. Looking back to 2020, Vitalik first introduced the “Rollup-centric” scaling roadmap, positioning L2 as Ethereum’s “branded sharding.”

At that time, the mainnet fees skyrocketed, with average transaction fees reaching $53.16 in May 2021. During the NFT boom, Gas prices briefly exceeded 500 gwei. In contrast, competing chains like Solana emerged with throughput of tens of thousands of transactions per second and ultra-low fees of $0.00025, directly challenging Ethereum’s dominance.

The turning point came with significant improvements in Ethereum’s own capacity. According to data from January 2026, Ethereum’s average transaction fee had dropped to about $0.44, a decrease of over 99% from its 2021 peak.

More critically, the core developers’ plan for the Glamsterdam upgrade in 2026 will increase the Gas limit from 60 million to 200 million, expected to stabilize layer 1 fees below $0.50.

Practical Challenges: Why Progress in L2 Decentralization Is Stalled

One of the main reasons for Vitalik’s shift is that the decentralization of L2 has not progressed as expected. Based on his observations, most L2s remain in “Stage 0,” relying on centralized security councils or multi-signature mechanisms.

Only a few projects have reached “Stage 1” of decentralized governance, and there is still a significant gap before achieving “Stage 2,” which requires trustless operation.

There is a sharp conflict between commercial interests and technical ideals. Vitalik explicitly pointed out that some projects “clearly state they do not want to surpass Stage 1.”

On one hand, this is due to technical considerations around ZK-EVM security; on the other hand, clients’ regulatory requirements compel them to retain ultimate control over the protocol. In response, Vitalik bluntly said: “If you do that, then you’re not ‘scaling Ethereum.’”

Taking specific L2 projects as examples: Arbitrum’s developer Offchain Labs raised $120 million in a Series B funding round in 2021, with a valuation of up to $1.2 billion.

However, this platform, which holds over $15 billion in assets and accounts for about 41% of the Layer 2 market share, remains in Stage 1.

Strategic Shift: From Simple Scaling to Unique Value

Faced with this new reality, Vitalik has proposed a clear strategic shift: L2 must move from simple scaling to providing unique value. He pointed out: “We should stop viewing L2 as ‘Ethereum’s branded sharding’ and instead see it as a spectrum of products covering different security assumptions and functionalities.”

Under this new framework, L2s are encouraged to develop clear differentiation, which could include privacy protection, non-financial applications, low-latency transactions, or specialized virtual machines.

Vitalik emphasized several potential areas of specialization: privacy-focused virtual machines, non-EVM virtual machines, extreme scalability, ultra-low latency, and built-in oracles.

Some L2 projects have already begun to respond to this new positioning. Marc Boiron, CEO of Polygon, said: “Vitalik’s view is not that Rollup is wrong, but that relying solely on scaling is not enough.”

Jesse Pollak, head of Coinbase-supported Base platform, emphasized: “Looking ahead, L2 solutions can’t just be ‘Ethereum but cheaper.’”

Wang Jing, co-founder of Optimism Foundation and CEO of OP Labs, offered a compelling analogy: “L2 is like a website. Every company will have its own L2, customized for its needs. Ethereum is an open settlement standard.”

Ecosystem Shock: From Industry Observation to Price Movements

Vitalik’s heavyweight statement immediately triggered a chain reaction in the crypto market. Market analysts began reassessing the entire L2 investment logic, even predicting that by the end of 2026, general-purpose L2 tokens will undergo a ‘Darwinian’ large-scale cleansing.

Community analysis indicates a significant economic imbalance between L2s and the Ethereum mainnet. For example, Base reportedly generated over $75 million in revenue last year but paid only about $1.52 million in fees to Ethereum, with a profit margin of approximately 98%.

This imbalance may be addressed after the implementation of the EIP-7918 proposal, which will set a price floor, forcing L2s to contribute more revenue to the base layer.

As of February 6, 2026, Ethereum’s price has fallen below the key psychological threshold of $2,000. Overall market sentiment has become cautious, and analysts generally believe that unless L2s can offer differentiated features that the mainnet cannot, they will face survival challenges.

User Maigoro wrote on the CoinMarketCap forum: “Copy-paste public chains without differentiation will slowly bleed out and die as capital consolidates.”

Crypto investment firm Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua also publicly admitted on February 2: “It was a mistake to be overly bullish on ETH after the top.”

Future Deployment: Opportunities for Specialized L2s

Under Vitalik’s new framework, the Ethereum ecosystem is undergoing a profound restructuring. While the general-purpose L2 narrative faces challenges, specialized L2s are opening new opportunities.

Vitalik himself explicitly stated that Ethereum should simultaneously advance mainnet scaling and native technology upgrades, such as integrating ZK-EVM verification mechanisms into the protocol layer to reduce reliance on external trust for L2. This creates space for L2 teams capable of providing “extreme scalability that the mainnet cannot achieve.”

On the technical front, Vitalik supports native Rollup precompiled contracts, utilizing built-in ZK-EVM to enable trustless EVM verification and composability. This upgrade will allow L2s to self-verify additional functionalities while clearly communicating their security guarantees to users.

Investors seeking opportunities in this transformation should focus on several directions: L2 projects specializing in privacy, high-frequency trading, or specific DeFi applications that have already reached Stage 1 decentralization and are actively progressing toward Stage 2; as well as mature ecosystems in DeFi, gaming, or social applications built on L2.

User CryptoEmpressX succinctly summarized: “Ethereum isn’t killing L2; it’s forcing them to evolve.”

With Rollup precompiles enabling direct connection between L2 and the mainnet, specialized L2s with unique value propositions will find their niche in the new Ethereum ecosystem.

Summary

Jesse Pollak, head of Base, stated that L2 cannot just be “cheaper Ethereum.” As the mainnet’s own scaling capacity improves, this view is increasingly validated.

Ethereum’s Gas limit is expected to significantly increase by 2026, keeping transaction fees low. Meanwhile, most L2 projects remain in the centralized stage, with slow progress toward decentralization.

Market reactions are already evident, with analysts predicting that by the end of 2026, general-purpose L2 tokens lacking differentiated value may face large-scale cleansing. The entire Ethereum ecosystem is at a turning point, awaiting the next chapter of specialized L2 development.

On the Gate platform, price fluctuations of Ethereum and related L2 tokens reflect this market restructuring driven by the transformation, with investors cautiously evaluating each project’s unique value proposition and long-term viability.