What Elon Musk Just Revealed About Tesla's Robotaxi Expansion and Optimus Production Timeline

Tesla’s leadership has been positioning the company for a major transformation, and CEO Elon Musk recently made several significant announcements that could reshape investor expectations. While the automotive business faces headwinds, the company’s focus on autonomous vehicles and humanoid robotics appears to be moving from concept to commercialization. Here’s what Musk disclosed about Tesla’s next chapter.

Musk Confirms Robotaxis Achieving Full Autonomous Operation in Austin

In a recent social media post, Musk announced a major milestone: “Just started Tesla robotaxi drives in Austin with no safety monitor in the car. Congrats to the Tesla AI team!” This declaration marks a turning point for the company’s autonomous ride-sharing ambitions. The service, which launched in Austin in June 2025 to a select user group, has since expanded to broader public availability with rapidly scaling service areas.

Tesla’s approach relies exclusively on camera-based vision systems rather than lidar sensors used by competitors like Waymo. This camera-only strategy offers a significant scaling advantage—the company can deploy its robotaxis without the time-intensive process of mapping every route beforehand. Musk’s confidence in this methodology appears validated by the expansion beyond Austin, though the San Francisco Bay Area operations still retain safety monitors for now.

Beyond these two markets, Tesla has secured permits in Arizona and testing authorization in Nevada. The company targets five new autonomous ride-sharing launches this year: Las Vegas, Phoenix, Dallas, Houston, and Miami. While Waymo maintains a competitive lead with operations across five U.S. cities, Tesla’s momentum suggests accelerating progress. According to Grand View Research, the robotaxi market is projected to expand at 99% annually through 2033, creating substantial opportunity for companies that can scale effectively.

FSD Set for European Market Entry in 2026, According to Musk’s Timeline

Musk recently stated that Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) technology could gain approval in Europe as soon as February 2026. The Netherlands Vehicle Authority’s expected decision next month would open pathways for rapid adoption across EU member states. Musk also suggested similar timing for China, though Chinese state media has disputed that claim.

Currently priced at $99 per month in the United States, FSD (Supervised) remains a nascent revenue stream. However, the expansion into European markets would substantially broaden Tesla’s addressable market. Morgan Stanley’s research indicates that autonomous vehicle sales could reach $3.3 trillion annually by 2040, suggesting enormous long-term commercial potential if Tesla can establish strong market positions globally.

Optimus Humanoid Robot Coming to Market by Late 2027, Musk Projects

Perhaps most striking among recent Musk statements is his projection that Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot could be available to consumers by late 2027. Musk has consistently articulated ambitious claims about Optimus since the company’s prototype phase in 2022. Most notably, he has suggested the technology could add as much as $20 trillion to Tesla’s market valuation—representing roughly 80% of the company’s total value at projected levels.

While Musk’s track record with AI timelines has included delays and unmet promises, the humanoid robotics market represents genuine growth potential. Morgan Stanley estimates the sector will expand at 50% annually, potentially reaching $1.2 trillion by 2040. Even if Optimus captures a fraction of this market, the financial implications would be transformative.

The Strategic Picture: Physical AI Over Electric Vehicles

The contrast between Tesla’s EV market challenges and its robotics ambitions could hardly be starker. The company’s vehicle deliveries fell 9% in 2025 despite global EV sales climbing 25%—a clear signal of competitive pressures and market saturation in pure electric vehicles. Brand challenges and the loss of federal tax credit incentives have further eroded Tesla’s traditional automotive advantage.

Yet Musk’s statements consistently emphasize confidence in the robotaxi and Optimus pathways. These projects represent a fundamental pivot toward physical artificial intelligence applications. The near-term focus centers on robotaxi commercialization and FSD geographic expansion, while Optimus represents longer-term wealth creation potential. Musk’s public commitments on timing—whether robotaxis without safety drivers, European FSD approval, or 2027 Optimus availability—will increasingly define investor perception of execution capability.

The valuation question remains unresolved: Tesla trades at roughly 290 times earnings, an elevated multiple that presumes successful robotaxi and robotics commercialization. Should these initiatives generate material revenue streams within the projected timelines, the current valuation could rationalize quickly. Conversely, if execution stumbles, investor expectations would require significant recalibration.