Understanding 100 Years of Gold: Where Are We Now?

Recently, many people have started paying attention to gold again.
Some ask:
Has gold already completed its correction?
At this position, can I still buy?
Will I get trapped at a high if I buy now?
These questions can actually be answered with a long-term chart of gold spanning 100 years.
If you only look at short-term fluctuations over a few days or weeks, the conclusion will definitely be confusing;
but if you extend the timeline to decades, the answer becomes very clear.
1. First, let's say the most important point (to give you a "stay calm" conclusion)
Gold is not at the starting point now, nor necessarily at the end, but in a phase of "rebalancing after a big rise."
In other words:
The long-term trend is not broken, but in the short term, it's not the time to rush.
All the following content is to explain this point.
2. What has gold roughly experienced in these 100 years?
If you place gold prices on a long-term logarithmic chart (one that shows decades of changes at once), you'll find:
Gold has never risen straight up; instead, it has repeatedly gone through three states:
Rapid rise → Long digestion period → Another rapid rise
Let's discuss each phase.
Phase 1: The Institutional Lock Period (1915–1971)
During this period, gold prices hardly moved.
Not because it "had no value,"
but because prices were fixed by the system, around $20 per ounce.
This period can be ignored directly:
It’s not the market price, so it has little reference for today’s judgment.
Phase 2: The First True "Price Liberalization" (1971–1980)
In 1971, the dollar and gold decoupled, and gold entered free pricing for the first time.
What was the result?
Prices skyrocketed in a very short time.
This is a very typical phenomenon:
When something that has been suppressed for a long time is suddenly released, the market initially overreacts.
But the outcome is clear:
It peaked in 1980, then...
Phase 3: The 20-Year "Tough Digestion" Period (1980–2000)
These 20 years were the least popular for gold.
Prices stagnated,
holding was a terrible experience,
many people thought "gold is useless."
But from a long-term structural perspective, this step is very important:
The previous rapid rise was too fast, and time was needed to digest the emotions.
This is "time repayment," not a collapse.
Phase 4: The Second Major Bull Run (2001–2011)
After 2000, gold started again.
This time, it wasn’t due to systemic shocks but:
Credit issues,
Financial crises,
Excessive money supply.
Gold steadily moved upward for a full decade.
Then, it entered another digestion phase.
Phase 5: The Second Long-Term Consolidation (2011–2019)
During this period:
Gold attracted less attention,
no "story" to tell,
many thought "the opportunity is elsewhere."
But structurally, it was preparing for the next rally.
Phase 6: The Third Major Bull Run (2020–2025)
Post-pandemic, everything changed.
Global credit was repeatedly overextended,
geopolitical risks persisted long-term,
central banks around the world began to revalue gold.
Gold broke through historical ranges again, entering a price zone where it had never stayed long before.
This step has completed the "main rise" phase.
3. So, where is gold now?
A one-sentence summary of its current position:
After the third big surge, it is rebalancing.
From a long-term chart, there are three very clear signals:
1️⃣ The long-term upward trendline has not been broken,
indicating the main direction is still intact.
2️⃣ The price is somewhat far from the "reasonable central zone,"
so it must undergo oscillations, pullbacks, and time.
3️⃣ Volatility has increased significantly,
a typical sign of shifting from "one-sided rise" to "rebuilding the cost zone."
Therefore, it is neither the "beginning of a bull market,"
nor is it safe to say "the trend has ended."
4. What might happen next? (No guesses, just structural analysis)
Looking at history, there are only three possible paths forward.
First: Sideways at high levels, slowly rising again (the healthiest)
Prices stay flat or fluctuate,
time extends,
markets become boring.
This is the most stable but also the most torturous trend.
Second: Drop further, then stabilize (most emotionally difficult)
Looks scary,
but the long-term trendline remains unbroken,
using the decline to wash out final emotions.
Historically, this situation is not rare.
Third: The trend is completely broken (requires defense)
Only valid if:
The long-term trendline is effectively broken and prices fall and cannot recover.
Before that, talking about a "long-term reversal" is premature.
5. How should ordinary people use this "100-year structural chart"?
What is it for?
Avoid chasing the rally,
not be scared off by short-term fluctuations,
see clearly whether "this is digestion or a tide retreat."
What does it explicitly prohibit?
Because of strong short-term momentum, thinking a new surge is coming,
Because of painful pullbacks, believing gold is no good,
Using a few days of rise and fall to deny decades of structural trends.
6. The most important final point
Gold's history has never been a straight line, but a cycle:
Big surge → Long digestion → Another big surge.
Now, it’s more like the "calm period" after the third big surge.
The best opportunities often appear when "no one is in a hurry, and the market is boring."
If you can understand this,
you are already in a better position than most who only focus on short-term trading.