The downward cycle of ETH may be unavoidable. Can Trump turn the tide?

1. Critical technical levels under threat: Ethereum's price has fallen below the key 50-week and 200-week moving averages. The long-term four-year trendline support is around $1,600. If it breaks decisively, it could trigger a larger-scale sell-off.
2. Market sentiment is subdued: There is a widespread "intense bearish sentiment" in the market. Derivatives market data (such as futures premium below neutral thresholds) indicates traders lack optimism.
3. Institutional forecasts are cautious: In a baseline forecast released by Citi in February 2026, the expected Ethereum price by the end of the year is $4,300 (based on a price of about $4,515 at the time). The bearish scenario target price set is $2,200.
4. Expert warnings of risk: Some analysts believe that the current sell-off stems from macro risk aversion, and the market may be in a "capitulation" phase. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin also pointed out that the development of Layer 2 solutions faces challenges that could impact the mainnet's value.
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Currently, there are both bullish and bearish signals, but based on historical cycle patterns, this is definitely a bear market. During this cycle, Trump has been trying to push cryptocurrencies back up. Whether he can succeed depends on the $1,600 level. If ETH decisively breaks below $1,600, a wave of sell-offs will likely follow. At that point, it might be worth testing the $1,200–$1,300 range for ETH. #Gate春节赛马红包嘉年华