Hedera On-Chain Data "Cooling" Alert Triggered: HBAR May Drop Another 20%, $0.073 Becomes a Critical Support Level

February 12 News, in 2026, Hedera (HBAR) is facing a new round of downward pressure. Affected by weakening on-chain indicators and the overall sluggishness of the crypto market, its price has been continuously declining since early January. Data shows that HBAR has recently fallen about 5.66%, with a year-to-date decline of over 30%. As one of the top market cap digital assets, its retracement since the peak in July last year has approached 70%, and the long-term trend remains under pressure.

On-chain fundamentals also signal caution. According to DeFiLlama data, the total value locked (TVL) on the Hedera network has dropped from $146 million in July last year to approximately $57.2 million, a significant decline. Meanwhile, the weekly revenue of dApps within the network has decreased by nearly 70% from the mid-October high. The simultaneous cooling of developer activity and user engagement has weakened the ecosystem’s attractiveness to capital and dampened market confidence.

Institutional support is also lacking. Funds flowing into US-based Hedera-related spot funds have noticeably slowed, with almost no new inflows in the past three weeks, aside from a small inflow on February 6. Compared to products related to SOL and XRP, which still maintain high attention, institutional demand for HBAR appears relatively weak.

From a technical perspective, HBAR has broken below the key psychological level of $0.10 and remains constrained by the downward trend line formed since October last year. The super trend indicator has turned red, and the MACD is below the zero line, indicating bearish momentum. If selling pressure continues, the next significant support level is around $0.073, leaving approximately 20% downside potential from the current price.

Under the dual pressures of macro uncertainty and on-chain data, Hedera’s short-term trend remains defensive, with the market awaiting new fundamentals or capital catalysts.