#当前行情抄底还是观望？ February 16, 2026 Cryptocurrency Market Analysis: Opportunities and Risks Under Bearish Sentiment.

Today is Monday, February 16, 2026, coinciding with the Lunar New Year. Wishing everyone a Happy New Year and all the best! The cryptocurrency market has entered a new week, and due to the US Presidents' Day holiday, the US stock market is closed today, and trading of US Treasury futures on CME is also paused, which has temporarily impacted overall market liquidity. In fact, Bitcoin has fallen to its current level, and market consensus seems to be focused on “waiting for further price declines”—ideally triggering our pre-set limit buy orders repeatedly to acquire assets at more favorable prices.
Last week, after the release of inflation data, US stocks and the crypto market showed signs of a rebound, and Bitcoin ETFs also experienced a short-term rally. On February 13, stock prices rose by 2.04%. However, looking at the past three months, stock prices have fallen from $14.52 on November 18, 2025, to $9.50 on February 13, 2026, a total decline of 34.57%. The rebound strength was limited and did not change the overall downtrend. One core reason for the weak rebound is the cooling of market expectations for Fed rate cuts—there don’t seem to be many rate cuts expected this year. Currently, a few Fed officials still emphasize the need to cut rates as soon as possible, but most policymakers prefer to adopt a wait-and-see attitude. This cautious stance is not passive inaction but a balancing of dual risks: one, prematurely easing monetary policy could reignite inflation and undo previous efforts to control it; two, maintaining high interest rates for too long could weaken the labor market and trigger new economic risks. If the Fed signals that “if employment data weakens significantly, inflation concerns can be temporarily deprioritized,” then risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, will gain significant emotional support.
This week, the market will focus on two key macroeconomic data releases: the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes on Thursday early morning, which are likely to clarify the current monetary policy stance; and on Friday, the PCE inflation data, which is a core indicator for the Fed’s inflation control. Its performance will directly influence market expectations for rate cuts and subsequently impact the crypto market.
Returning to cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin surged back above $70,000 but then declined again. Fortunately, no new CME futures gaps have formed, indicating that short-term market volatility has not yet caused extreme liquidity imbalances. On the other hand, Ethereum’s one-hour chart shows a very clear futures gap. Based on historical experience, if this gap can be quickly filled, Ethereum is likely to see a phase of rebound, serving as an important short-term trading signal.
The most obvious feature of the current market is that the panic and greed indices have fallen into single digits—looking back at crypto history, during the 2012 crash, MtGox collapse, the 2017-2018 bear market, and liquidity crunches during the pandemic, panic and greed indices have generally been in single digits during extreme distress. This indicates that current market sentiment has returned to “extreme risk aversion,” with most investors willing to cut losses and exit rather than continue to endure volatility, spreading panic.
Interestingly, every historical turning point shows that extreme lows are rare opportunities for positioning. But when we are actually in those moments, the experience is quite the opposite: the moment extreme fear appears, the existing trend is usually broken, investors’ positions are often wiped out, and market confidence is thoroughly shattered. Every decline seems to declare “this time is different,” and every correction makes us doubt whether the bottom is still far away.
And this is the market’s truth—when most people are forced to trade based on emotion and make decisions driven by fear, the advantage of a long-term perspective becomes apparent. The real opportunities are often buried in the most difficult and panic-inducing moments. From the perspective of market chip structure, short-term holders are under significant unrealized loss pressure. During the recent brief decline, nearly 30,000 Bitcoin were transferred to exchanges in a floating loss state. This signal is often seen as a sign of rising potential selling willingness and reflects short-term investors’ panic-driven exit sentiment.
According to the latest data from Glassnode, the average cost basis for short-term Bitcoin holders is about $90,900, while active investors’ average cost is $85,800, and the market’s true average cost is $79,000. The realized price is $54,900, which is close to the observed short-term holding cost of $90,600, with minor differences due to data timing.
Although Bitcoin rebounded above $70,000 late last week, short-term unrealized losses remain close to 25%. This means that investors who entered within the past approximately 155 days are generally in significant paper losses. For funds targeting swing or short-term gains, this persistent deviation from cost basis can quickly become a psychological burden. Especially when the market lacks clear rebound signals or signs of bottoming, panic selling often becomes an instinct, further intensifying downward pressure.
Looking at historical cycles, Bitcoin’s price staying below the realized price for extended periods is not normal but a typical feature of bear markets. During the last deep correction, Bitcoin’s price remained below this level for months, even nearly a year, until macro liquidity conditions improved and market chip structure recovered, allowing the price to rise back above the realized price.
Therefore, based on historical experience, if the current market structure persists, a prolonged period of price oscillation below the realized price is not unusual, and investors should prepare for a long-term approach. To fully repair the short-term chip structure, Bitcoin needs a strong and sustained rally, pushing the price above $90,000 again, turning floating losses into floating gains, and gradually restoring market risk appetite and investor confidence, breaking the current panic cycle.
Regarding market bottoms, some theories based on cycle analysis suggest that an ideal bottom window may form around October 2026. This projection is based on the overlay of halving cycles and liquidity cycles, which has some reference value. However, we must be clear: cycles are not precise timing models, and market movements are always influenced by various unexpected factors. The actual bottom formation time will likely deviate from the theoretical estimate, so blind faith in cycle predictions is unwise.
Anyway, since the peak, Bitcoin has fallen by over 50%. Comparing with historical bear market data, Bitcoin has experienced drawdowns of over 80% in extreme cases. Based on this, some estimate that the current decline might only have about 30% left. While this calculation seems rational, it conceals a logical trap—markets do not operate on fixed ratios, and historical retracement ranges are only for reference, not definitive lower bounds. The most difficult phases often occur when most people, believing “the decline is enough,” blindly assume the bottom is near. Such bottom-fishing at this stage could actually entail greater risks.
Many investors are concerned: will Bitcoin fall below $58,000?
Actually, this question itself is not that important. What matters is the psychological structure behind the question—when we obsess over a specific price point, it reflects hesitation about entry timing and fear of missing the bottom. Waiting for an exact price often means hoping to hit the bottom in one shot, which is very risky in highly volatile assets like cryptocurrencies.
The recent months of decline have already drained a lot of market patience and confidence. In this environment, even a small rebound of a few thousand dollars can trigger anxiety among some investors about “missing the bottom,” leading to short-term follow-on buying. But such rebounds are often unsustainable and may instead be used by major players to shake out weak hands. Previously, Bitcoin dropped near $60,000 and then quickly rebounded above $70,000. This kind of volatility pattern is typical of bear markets, designed to shake out weak positions and exhaust investor patience.
The core issue now is not whether the price will fall to $50,000 or rebound to $80,000 next, but whether the current range can complete a trend reversal.
From historical experience, after a strong correction, prices often rebound sharply and then enter a deeper correction—this is a common path in bear markets. Investors should remain vigilant and not be misled by short-term rebounds.
However, it’s also important to note that the $60,000 to $70,000 range has some technical and psychological support significance. Remember that in 2024, Bitcoin spent a long time oscillating in this range, forming many dense trading zones. This creates natural support—dense trading zones imply sufficient chip exchange, higher market cost concentration, and when prices return to this area, buy-side support tends to form, providing defensive strength. In the short term, this range has shown some support signals, mainly due to accumulated chip structure from historical trading activity. But support is not infinitely stable. Every downward test of support consumes some buy-side strength, just like the $80,000 support level—while we saw substantial buy-in, once many buy orders at current prices are filled or canceled after multiple touches, liquidity below the market thins out. If the critical support zone fails, the next key support will be near the 200-week moving average around $58,000—an important long-term indicator that marks trend boundaries and is a key reference for assessing long-term cost structures.
Looking back, breaching the 200-week moving average in a bear market is not uncommon, especially during macro liquidity tightening phases, where prices may temporarily or periodically fall below this long-term average. This is a normal adjustment in bear markets. If the $58,000 200-week MA support fails, the next target is around $55,000, close to the $54,900 figure from Glassnode.
An interesting observation: in past market cycles, the realized price has often been broken through, forcing most holders into losses, even long-term holders, until the true cycle bottom appears. This suggests that the current market may not have reached the bottom yet, and there is still room for sentiment clearing and valuation compression. Ultimately, a bear market is a process of valuation compression and sentiment clearing—painful but necessary for market self-repair and returning to rational valuation. The core logic of dollar-cost averaging is to spread risk over time and price, reducing the impact of misjudgment—since no one can precisely predict the bottom, investing all at once risks significant psychological and financial losses if prices continue to fall.
Finally, a reminder: don’t think that because Bitcoin has already fallen 50%, the downside is limited— it can still halve again from the current level. Altcoins are a good example: an altcoin that has dropped 80% from its cycle high may seem to have limited further downside, but that’s an illusion. It could still fall another 80% from its current level. In bear markets, “no bottom in sight” is an eternal truth. Respect the market, control risks—that’s the key to surviving and waiting for opportunities.