Bitcoin (BTC) Price Trend Analysis (As of February 17, 2026)

1. Current Market Overview

- Current Price: approximately $68,300
- Retraced nearly 50% from the October 2025 all-time high of $126,000, entering a technical bear market
- Short-term Pattern: Weak oscillation, lack of rebound, selling pressure still present

2. Key Influencing Factors

1. Liquidity and Capital Market
Continuous outflows from US stock ETFs and tightening global liquidity are the main reasons for the decline.
2. Technical Aspects
Price is trading below key moving averages, with a clear correction structure on the weekly chart, and unresolved bearish divergence.
3. Sentiment and Events
Geopolitical risks, tight regulatory expectations, and market panic and hesitation are prevalent.

3. Key Price Levels (Trading Reference)

- Resistance Levels: $70,000 → $75,000
- Support Levels: $66,000 → $58,000
- A decisive break below $58,000 significantly increases downside risk

4. Market Outlook

- Short-term (1–3 months): Mainly oscillating to find a bottom, likely to fluctuate within the $58,000–$75,000 range, with no clear trend reversal.
- Mid-term (Second half of 2026): Multiple institutions predict a bottom around the end of the year, with common forecasted bottom zones of $40,000–$50,000; in extreme scenarios, testing the $30,000 level cannot be ruled out.
- Long-term: Still supported by halving cycles and institutional logic, but a solid bottom needs to be established first.

5. Risk Warning

Bitcoin is highly volatile, with uncertain regulation and no guaranteed redemption. The above is only an objective market analysis and does not constitute investment advice.