#比特币下一步怎么走？ Bitcoin falls below $60,000. How low will this bear market go?

Since Bitcoin peaked at 126,000 on October 7 last year, the crypto market has entered a bear market. Given that it is a bear market, how low will this round go?
We can estimate using two methods.
Method 1: Based on current trends, estimate the decay in bear market declines.
Historically, each bear market in Bitcoin has seen decreasing declines, showing a linear decay trend. Therefore, the decline in this bear market will be less than the previous 77.6%, but the exact figure needs to be estimated.
Using the decline percentages from the previous three bear markets and applying quadratic regression, we get an equation: y = -1.85x^2 + 2.75x + 86.0
Y is the bear market decline percentage, x is the number of bear markets. Substituting 4 for x, we get a decline of 67.4% for this round.
Is a 67.4% decline consistent with mathematical patterns?
Let's compare it with previous bear markets.
In 2018, the decline was 84.1%, compared to 86.9% in 2014, the decay ratio is 84.1% ÷ 86.9% = 96.8%
In 2022, the decline was 77.6%, compared to 84.1% in 2018, the decay ratio is 77.6% ÷ 84.1% = 92.2%
Observing the performance of the previous three bear markets, each decline has decreased, and the decay ratio has also decreased.
If in 2026 the decline is 67.4%, compared to 77.6% in 2022, the decay ratio is 67.4% ÷ 77.6% = 86.9%
Mathematically, this is consistent with the pattern.
Next, let's look at it from a technical analysis perspective.
This round of bear market dropped from 126,000 to 60,000, a decline of 52.5%. It occurred in three stages: first from 126,000 to 80,000, then stabilizing and consolidating for two months, and finally dropping from 80,000 to 60,000.
These three phases almost replicate the 2022 bear market.
In 2022, the decline from 69,000 to 26,000 also involved an initial drop, followed by consolidation, then further decline.
However, in 2026, the drop from 126,000 to 60,000 is 52.5%. Comparing this to 2022's drop from 69,000 to 26,000, which was 61.5%, the decay ratio is 52.5% ÷ 61.5% = 85.4%, matching the quadratic equation estimate.
Therefore, the expected bottom of this bear market is 126,208 × (1 - 67.4%) = $41,143.
Method 2: Based on the shutdown price of the miner.
Antminer S21 XP, the main model currently, has a shutdown price around $40,000.
Cross-verifying these two methods leads to the conclusion:
Bitcoin will bottom at around $41,000 on October 6, 2026.
Buying Bitcoin on October 6, 2026, will be your closest opportunity to financial freedom. The crypto bear market is here, and there are 230 days left until Bitcoin reaches its current bear market bottom.