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Ethereum (ETH) Price Fluctuation Analysis Report: The Crossroads of Bull and Bear Battles
Report Date: February 20, 2026
Current Price: Break below $1,905.6

Key Summary Points

Ethereum has fallen below $1,905, further distancing itself from the psychological $2,000 level, and market sentiment has hit a freezing point. However, on-chain data presents a rare divergence signal: price weakness coincides with strong fundamentals. In the short term, technical and capital factors remain under pressure, with the possibility of further declines to $1,770 or even $1,367; but in the medium to long term, factors such as record-high staking rates, institutional contrarian accumulation, and accelerated RWA tokenization are building energy for the next rally. Current levels may be the “darkest hour before dawn.”

I. Short-term Bearish Factors: Why is ETH Still Falling?

1. Technical Analysis: All Key Moving Averages Have Been Broken

From the daily chart, ETH’s current price of $1,905 is well below key moving averages. Sellers maintain a clear technical advantage. The immediate support is at $1,780; if broken, the next support is at $1,770, with an extreme case down to $1,367. The $2,000 level has shifted from support to a strong resistance, with multiple failed rebounds, forming a typical “support-resistance flip” structure.

In the short term, ETH is expected to fluctuate between $1,770 and $2,000, with less than a 20% chance of breaking above $2,000.

2. Capital Market: ETF Continues to Drain

On February 18, 2026, the US spot Ethereum ETF recorded a net outflow of $42.5 million, with over 70% of withdrawals from BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust. Over the past four months, the Ethereum spot ETF has seen cumulative outflows exceeding $2.6 billion.

The weekly chart confirms a death cross pattern, intensifying downside risk.

3. Market Sentiment: Extreme Fear

The current Fear & Greed Index is only 9 points (Extreme Fear), with retail investors generally exiting or even shorting. ETH has declined for six consecutive months, marking the longest streak of declines since the 2018 bear market.

4. Loss Calculation Based on Current Price

At the current $1,905:

· Average investor cost basis (at $2,241) corresponds to an average loss of 15%
· Comparing historical drawdowns: maximum average loss in 2022 was 39%, in 2025 was 21%
· Based on this, if the 2025 correction repeats (21%), ETH could drop to $1,770; if the extreme 2022 scenario (39%) repeats, it could reach $1,367

II. Long-term Bullish Factors: What Are Smart Money Buying?

1. Staking Rate Breaks 50%, Circulating Supply Continues to Shrink

Data shows that for the first time in Ethereum’s history, over 50% of the total ETH supply is locked in PoS staking contracts, with over 80.95 million ETH staked.

This indicates that the freely tradable liquidity ETH in the market is decreasing. Historically, staking scales tend to accelerate during calm market phases, as investors prefer earning yields over frequent trading.

2. Institutional Contrarian Accumulation, Whales’ Addresses Surge

While retail investors panic and exit, institutions are heavily buying below $2,000:

· An institution added 35,000 ETH in a single day (about $6.67 million), holding a total of 4.37 million ETH, about 3.62% of circulating supply, worth approximately $8.3 billion
· Another institutional-related wallet bought 20,000 ETH (about $3.81 million) from exchanges
· Regarding long-term holding addresses, over 2.5 million ETH flowed into long-term wallets in February, with holdings increasing from 22 million to 26.7 million ETH since 2026

Data shows that ETH’s capital inflow over the past six months has reached its most active phase historically.

3. RWA Tokenization: Trillion-Scale Sector Launch

The total value of real-world asset (RWA) tokens issued on Ethereum has surpassed $17 billion, with approximately 300% year-over-year growth.

Major financial institutions like BlackRock, JPMorgan, Franklin Templeton have tested or launched tokenized products on Ethereum. RWA scale could reach $2 trillion by 2028 and $11 trillion by 2030. Ethereum is becoming the core infrastructure of this trillion-dollar sector.

4. Network Fundamentals Significantly Improve

Weekly transaction count hit a record high of 17.3 million. Median Gas fees dropped to $0.008, about 3,000 times lower than the peak in 2021, greatly improving network efficiency. Upgrades like Dencun and the approval of spot ETFs lay the groundwork for future development.

III. Overall Assessment: Is $1,905 the Bottom?

Short-term (1-4 weeks): Consolidation and testing support at $1,770

ETF outflows, moving averages resistance, and market sentiment at a low point suggest that a bottom has not yet been confirmed technically. The current price of $1,905 is only about 7% above the key support at $1,770. If it falls below $1,780, more selling pressure could push prices into the $1,700–$1,770 zone.

However, derivatives data shows over $2 billion in short positions are set to be liquidated above $2,000, while long liquidations near $1,800 are only about $1 billion. The short squeeze risk is higher above $1,800—meaning a rebound could be stronger than expected once it starts.

Medium-term (1-3 months): Reversal window approaching

Price and fundamentals are severely diverging, and such a state cannot last. If ETH can effectively reclaim $2,000, it will confirm a short-term stabilization; breaking above $2,150 would establish a reversal pattern. After consolidation, a directional move is highly probable.

Long-term (6-12 months): Value proposition becomes prominent

Based on the current $1,905:

· Staking rate exceeds 50%, RWA sector explodes, institutional accumulation continues, structural bullishness is clear
· After six months of decline, historical experience (a rebound after seven months of decline in 2018) is worth referencing
· Current average loss is 15%; considering historical cycles, 12-month returns could be attractive
· A rebound to $3,500 (near 2024 high) implies an approximately +84% increase

IV. Risk Warnings

1. Macroeconomic sentiment risk: If overall crypto market sentiment cannot stabilize, ETH will struggle to do so alone
2. Chain competition: High-performance chains like Solana continue to compete for ecosystem share
3. Regulatory uncertainty: SEC stance on staking services may impact staking growth
4. Liquidation chain reactions: Falling below $1,770 could trigger chain liquidations

Conclusion

Ethereum is at a peculiar crossroads: the price has fallen to $1,905, hitting multi-month lows, yet fundamentals are reaching historic highs. Retail investors are panicking out, while institutions are accumulating in the darkness; ETF outflows continue, staking inflows persist.

From a trading perspective, the $1,905 level is only a step away from support at $1,770. Short-term trading is more challenging, and caution is advised until bullish signals appear. But from an allocation perspective, current levels may already be in the “smart money’s” target zone—downside risk is about 7%-28%, while upside potential over 12 months exceeds 80%, making the risk-reward ratio favorable.

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Disclaimer: This report is compiled from publicly available information and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; please make independent judgments and proceed cautiously. #何時是最佳進場時機 $ETH