#我在Gate广场过新年 Crypto Daily(02.19)：Bitcoin Enters Late-Stage Bear Market Consolidation, Institutional Holdings Diverge, Regulatory Framework Emerges

1. Cryptocurrency Market Trends and Price Analysis
1. Research firm K33 notes that the current Bitcoin market structure, derivatives positions, and ETF capital flows are highly similar to the late-stage bear market of 2022, indicating a possible long-term consolidation range ($60,000 to $75,000), rather than a quick rebound. Historical data shows an average 90-day return of about 3% after market bottoms.
2. Analyst Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin is a “liquidity barometer,” with the AI boom potentially triggering a banking crisis. The Federal Reserve may start printing money, causing a short-term dip to $60,000, but long-term will provide momentum for Bitcoin.
3. Eric Trump reiterated his prediction that Bitcoin will rise to $1 million, stating that the current decline is a “distress signal” for the financial system, and smart money has already sensed the liquidity crisis.
4. Bitcoin price fluctuated between $67,000 and $68,000, dropping below the $66,000 mark at 3 PM Eastern Time, with a daily decline of 2.6%. Market sentiment is cautious, and institutional traders are taking defensive positions.
2. Cryptocurrency Company Financials and Capital Operations Cases
1. Nakamoto Holdings experienced a 99% stock price plunge after a backdoor listing via KindlyMD, facing delisting risks and frequent accounting issues (quarterly loss of $97 million). Ultimately, it acquired its founder’s companies (BTC Inc and UTXO Management) at four times the market price, diluting shareholder equity.
2. Ledn sold $188 million in Bitcoin-backed bonds, involving issuance of crypto financial products, reflecting institutional financing trends through digital assets.
3. Questions and Criticisms of Bitcoin Theoretical System
Crypto thought leaders publicly questioned Bitcoin’s entire theoretical framework after 12 years, claiming it has “failed,” sparking community discussions on the underlying logic of cryptocurrencies.
4. Institutional Capital Flows and ETF Investments
The Abu Dhabi fund’s investment in the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF exceeded $1 billion, with long-term holdings not fully exited, indicating ongoing institutional allocation to crypto assets.
5. Regulatory Policies and Industry Legislation Progress
1. Cb CEO Brian Armstrong pointed out that banking trade groups are hindering the Crypto Market Structure Bill with a “zero-sum mindset,” while banks themselves see cryptocurrencies as an opportunity and hope to reach legislative progress through compromise.
2. U.S. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins signaled regulatory intentions, clarifying the framework for investment contracts, promoting innovation exemptions (such as tokenized securities pilot programs), and rulemaking (including financing pathways and custody rules), emphasizing that regulation should ensure transparency and clear rules.