War and Asset Prices: The 35-Year Structural Iron Law (1990–2026)

—— War Alters Volatility, Currency Determines Direction
Over the past 35 years, humanity has experienced:
Gulf War
Afghanistan War
Iraq War
Libyan War
Crimea Crisis
Russia-Ukraine War
Escalation of Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
And the latest: U.S. military action against Venezuela (2026-01-03, compiled from public international news reports)
Intuition tells most people: war changes market trends.
But when we place the complete historical charts of the S&P 500, crude oil, and gold on the same timeline, a completely different structural truth emerges:
War has almost never changed the trend itself.
What war changes is: the speed of volatility. Not: the direction of the trend.
Part One: U.S. Stocks — War Causes Shocks, but Trends Are Still Driven by Macro Factors
First, look at the complete structure chart of the S&P 500 (1990–2026).
You will find an counterintuitive fact: in this 35-year sample,
war itself has never alone ended a bull market.
Gulf War (1991-01-17)
Before the war: U.S. stocks had already experienced a correction.
After the war: uncertainty was lifted.
The market entered a super bull market in the 1990s. Gains exceeded 400%.
War did not create the bull market, but it ended the phase of uncertainty.
Afghanistan War (2001-10-07)
Many believe: war caused market collapse.
But the real structure is: the dot-com bubble had already burst in 2000.
At the time of the war: the market was in the late stage of a bear market.
Subsequently: the market bottomed out in Q4 2002–Q1 2003.
Iraq War (2003-03-20)
This is one of the most classic cases. When the war broke out: the market was still in high uncertainty.
After the war: uncertainty was lifted.
Throughout 2003: the S&P 500 rose over 30%.
Beginning the 2003–2007 bull cycle.
Libyan War (2011-03-19)
At the time of the war: U.S. stocks were in the recovery phase after the financial crisis.
The war caused short-term turbulence but did not change the recovery trend; the market continued to rise.
Russia-Ukraine War (2022-02-24)
After the war started: U.S. stocks dipped short-term, entering a bear market phase in 2022.
But then: gradually recovered in 2023, reaching new all-time highs in 2024.
War: did not change the long-term trend, only the rhythm of volatility.
Venezuela Event (2026-01-03)
When the military action occurred: U.S. stocks were still within the existing macro cycle structure.
No trend reversal occurred; the structure persisted.
Conclusion One: In the validation sample from 1990–2026:
War influences volatility but macro cycles determine the trend.
War may accelerate the trend but rarely creates the trend itself.
Part Two: Crude Oil — War Affects Expectations, Not Long-Term Direction
Next, look at the WTI crude oil structure chart.
The pattern is extremely clear: oil prices tend to rise during war expectations, not after the war actually occurs.
Gulf War
Before the war: oil prices rose.
After the war: entered a retracement phase.
Iraq War
Before the war: oil prices continued to rise.
After the war: entered a volatile structure.
Libyan War
Before the war: oil prices rose to a peak.
After the war: entered a long-term decline cycle.
Russia-Ukraine War
Before the war: oil prices rose to $130.
After the war: entered a phase of oscillation and decline, returning to supply-demand driven structure.
Venezuela Event (2026)
At the time of the event: oil prices did not show structural upward movement, still continuing the original supply-demand cycle.
Conclusion Two: The core driver of oil prices is: war expectations; not the war itself.
When the war occurs: uncertainty is lifted, and oil prices are once again determined by supply and demand.
Part Three: Gold — Short-Term Safe Haven, Long-Term Currency-Driven
Gold’s structure reveals a deeper pattern: short-term influenced by war, long-term driven by currency cycles. The core of long-term gold pricing: is real interest rates.
And real interest rates: are determined by monetary policy.
Gulf War
Gold: short-term safe haven rally.
But at that time, gold was still in a: 1980–1999 long-term bear market structure.
War did not change the long-term trend.
Iraq War
Gold: short-term rally.
But the real long-term rise: came from: global monetary easing cycles, not the war itself.
Libyan War
Gold: short-term safe haven fluctuations, then reverted to currency-driven structure.
Russia-Ukraine War
Gold: short-term rise.
Then reverted to currency cycle dominance.
2023–2026 Gold Super Rally, the core drivers: are not war, but:
Changes in real interest rates
Dollar cycle shifts
Global liquidity structure changes
Conclusion Three:
The long-term direction of gold: is determined by currency, not war.
Part Four: The Unified Structural Iron Law of the Three Major Assets
Unified the three structure charts:
A clear pattern emerges:
| Asset | War Impact |
|---------|----------------------------------------------|
| U.S. Stocks | Short-term shocks, long-term driven by macro cycles |
| Crude Oil | War expectations drive rises, post-war return to supply-demand |
| Gold | Short-term safe haven response, long-term driven by currency cycles |
Part Five: The Three Core Variables Truly Deciding Asset Trends
Are not war. But: liquidity, interest rates, currency cycles.
War: is just a trigger, not the engine.
Part Six: The Structural Significance of the Venezuela Event
This is an extreme geopolitical event.
But the three major assets: did not change their long-term trends, further proving: even major conflicts cannot alone determine long-term structure.
The 35-year structural iron law has only one sentence:
War changes the speed of price movement, currency determines the direction of prices.