#我在Gate广场过新年 February 21, 2026 Bitcoin BTC Latest Market Trend Analysis Report

I. Technical Analysis Deep Dive
1. Short-term Market (1–3 days): BTC is currently in a narrow-range consolidation phase, fluctuating around the $67,000 midpoint. Both bulls and bears are engaged in intense battle, with no clear directional trend. 4-hour candlesticks show alternating small bullish and bearish candles, with trading volume significantly reduced compared to previous periods, indicating a market in wait-and-see mode. Selling pressure has eased, but bullish capital has not yet entered in large scale.
2. Key Support and Resistance Levels:
- Short-term First Support: $66,000 (recent 24-hour low; breaking below may test $65,000)
- Strong Support Line: $65,000 (mid-term key support; losing this may trigger a secondary decline)
- Short-term First Resistance: $68,500 (recent rebound high; breaking through requires increased volume)
- Strong Resistance Level: $70,000 (important yearly threshold; a breakout could open up rebound space)
3. Core Technical Indicator Signals:
- Moving Averages: 5-day and 10-day moving averages are in a bearish alignment, with price still below short-term averages, indicating the medium-term weakness remains unchanged; 30-day moving average is gradually flattening, showing diminishing downward momentum.
- MACD Indicator: On the daily chart, still in a weak zone after a death cross, but the green histogram bars are shrinking, suggesting potential bullish divergence and a gradual buildup of short-term rebound demand.
- Volume: Shrinking volume with oscillation is the current key feature. A volume breakout above $68,500 or a volume breakdown below $65,000 will be critical signals for short-term direction.

II. Market News and Driving Factors
1. Macro Environment Impact: Global monetary policy expectations remain uncertain, with fluctuations in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields indirectly affecting crypto market risk appetite. Risk aversion sentiment persists, limiting BTC’s rebound strength.
2. Institutional Fund Movements: Recent inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs have slowed; some institutions are on the sidelines, with no large-scale accumulation actions, resulting in a lack of core momentum for market rally.
3. Market Sentiment: Overall contract liquidation volume has significantly decreased compared to earlier periods. Long/short positions are close to a 5:5 ratio. Market sentiment is gradually shifting from panic to neutrality, with reduced speculative activity.
4. Fundamental Support: The deflationary property of Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million remains unchanged. The logic of long-term institutional allocation and inclusion in sovereign assets remains intact. Short-term corrections are considered phase adjustments within a bull market.

III. Market Sentiment and Capital Conditions
- Fear and Greed Index: Currently in a neutral to fear zone, with cautious investor sentiment, low willingness to chase highs, and bottom-fishing funds waiting for clearer signals.
- Capital Flows: Main capital outflows are slight over the past 24 hours; retail investor inflows and outflows are balanced, with no obvious collective push for rally or sell-off.
- Position Structure: No large-scale selling by long-term holders (HODLers); short-term speculative positions are gradually clearing out, leading to a healthier market structure.

IV. Trend Forecast and Trading Strategy
1. Short-term Trend (within 1 week): Likely to continue oscillating between $65,000 and $68,500, mainly for technical correction, with no significant unilateral trend. If volume sustains above $68,500, the rebound target is $70,000; if it breaks below $65,000, expect a test of $63,000–$62,000 support.
2. Medium-term Trend (1–3 months): Currently in a bottoming phase after a high-level correction, with a cumulative decline exceeding 24% this year, partially releasing risk. Future rebounds depend on clearer macro policies and institutional capital returning, with the overall rhythm being oscillation and gradual recovery.
3. Key Observation Signals:
- Volume breakout above $68,500 with three consecutive trading days confirms the start of a short-term rebound;
- Falling below $65,000 without quick recovery warns of continued medium-term correction;
- Continuous net inflow of ETF funds for three days indicates bullish sentiment.

V. Important Risk Warning
1. Cryptocurrencies are high-risk speculative assets with volatile prices, trading 24/7, prone to sharp retracements;
2. Global regulatory policies are continuously evolving, which may cause sudden market impacts;
3. All analyses are based on publicly available market data and are for informational sharing only; they do not constitute buy, sell, or hold recommendations;
4. Investment should be aligned with individual risk tolerance; avoid full leverage or overexposure, and participate rationally.