During the Spring Festival, gold prices rose above $5100, with geopolitical risks catalyzing the "hard currency" as a safe haven | New Year All Things Record

Gold Price Surges Over 2% on February 20, Reclaiming $5,100/oz Level

On the evening of February 20, international gold prices surged over 2%, regaining the $5,100 per ounce level.

Multiple sources familiar with the matter told Caixin that the immediate driver behind this round of gold price increase was the U.S. Supreme Court’s rejection of President Trump’s tariffs policy, combined with Trump’s public statement that he is “considering limited strikes on Iran,” leading to a rise in global risk-averse sentiment.

Several industry insiders interviewed stated that the fundamental logic supporting the rise in gold prices has not changed. The U.S. dollar’s credit status continues to be challenged, and gold’s role as a “hard currency” safe haven is being repeatedly catalyzed. Investors are advised to focus on long-term trends for strategic positioning and to beware of high-level volatility risks.

Geopolitical Risks Re-emerge, but the Underlying Logic for Gold Price Rise Remains Unchanged

Although the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling canceled some tariffs, Trump immediately announced plans to impose a new 10% tariff on global goods under other legal grounds. Market participants see this new trade policy uncertainty as fueling risk aversion demand.

A chief analyst of non-ferrous metals at a securities firm told Caixin that the fundamental logic supporting gold price increases remains unchanged: the challenge to the dollar’s credit status, which, when risk events occur, further catalyzes gold’s safe haven appeal as a “hard currency.”

In fact, since 2026, global geopolitical conflicts have frequently erupted: the U.S. intervened militarily in Venezuela, Trump investigated the Federal Reserve Chair, claimed sovereignty over Greenland, or conducted military actions against Iran.

“The core logic behind the continued bullish outlook on precious metals like gold is the ‘monetary phenomenon,’” said a senior executive of a billion-dollar private equity firm recently to Caixin. “High fiscal deficits in the U.S. and Europe, ongoing money printing by major central banks, combined with geopolitical tensions, have driven global risk-averse and inflation-hedging demand.”

Hong Kong gold investment professional Luo Zhenyu told Caixin that since last year, global investors’ deep concerns about the transformation of the current world monetary system have not changed the underlying logic of their gold holdings.

Short-term Volatility Builds, Long-term Bullish Trend Persists

朱志刚, Vice President of Guangdong Gold Association and Chief Gold Analyst, told Caixin that in the long run, given the decline in the dollar’s credibility and ongoing geopolitical tensions, it is unlikely that gold prices will fall sharply. However, the previous gains are high, and there is a risk of high-level oscillation.

Luo Zhenyu told Caixin that over the next at least six months, gold prices may fluctuate around $5,000 per ounce, with oscillations. After this, the next target for gold could be $10,000 per ounce.

A chief analyst at a securities firm told Caixin that future gold prices will mainly trend upward, but there may be volatility before the next Federal Reserve chair takes office. Currently, market disagreement exists over whether the new chair will “both shrink the balance sheet and cut interest rates,” and the order of these actions will significantly impact gold prices.

Related to Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH), a source told Caixin that amid geopolitical disturbances and expectations of further Fed rate cuts, the long-term outlook for gold prices and the value of gold assets remains positive, as gold is a “certain” metal in the market.

Industry Experts: Investors Should Focus on Long-term Trends for Allocation

Regarding investment advice, the aforementioned private equity executive told Caixin that under the trend of “de-dollarization,” normalized geopolitical conflicts, and central bank continued gold purchases, the allocation value of gold as a non-credit asset is rising. As a safe haven asset, confidence remains strong. Currently, high-net-worth individuals and institutions worldwide have insufficient gold asset allocations, making gold a suitable component for diversified portfolios.

Luo Zhenyu believes that investing in gold assets should be based on long-term trend positioning, as short-term chasing of gains and panic selling may be difficult to master.

朱志刚 stated that, at present, the upward trend of gold prices is likely to continue within the next five years. Every decline is an opportunity to buy. From a long-term allocation perspective, holdings should not be too high—recommended at 5% to 10% of household assets.

As the largest buyers of gold, major central banks worldwide have continued to purchase gold to bolster their national currency credit amid weakening dollar confidence.

Data from central banks show that as of the end of January 2026, China’s gold reserves reached 74.19 million ounces, an increase of 40,000 ounces from the previous month, marking the fifteenth consecutive month of accumulation. Additionally, according to the World Gold Council, global gold demand in 2025 reached 5,002 tons, surpassing the 5,000-ton mark for the first time.