Blockworks: Strategy 2026 The logic behind Bitcoin accumulation has changed

Author: Blockworks

Translation: Deep Tide TechFlow

Deep Tide Guide: Strategy holds nearly 680,000 Bitcoin, but its financing model is quietly shifting. From zero-coupon convertible bonds in 2024 to high-cost preferred stock and dilutive stock issuances in 2026, the amount of Bitcoin per share is being diluted. This article breaks down how this structural change actually impacts BTC prices—what’s worth noting is that its buying activity will shift from continuous to intermittent.

Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor | DAS 2025 New York Summit, Photo: Mike Lawrence for Blockworks

Strategy has re-emerged as a visible treasury buyer in the Bitcoin market, but compared to 2024-2025, the financing background has changed significantly.

At the end of December last year, Strategy completed a financing round but almost did not deploy the funds into Bitcoin. From December 29 to 31, the company sold 1,255,911 shares of MSTR, raising net $195.9 million, but only bought 3 Bitcoins. In January, deployment resumed: from January 1 to 4, another 735,000 shares were sold, raising net $116.3 million, and an average price of $90,391 per Bitcoin was paid to acquire 1,283 BTC, costing $116 million. The total holdings then increased to 673,783 BTC.

A more critical signal is the change in financing structure. From 2024 to early 2025, Strategy financed at low cost through convertible bonds—cash coupons only 0.625% to 2.25%. Later, it issued multiple zero-coupon convertible bonds. This approach works best when MSTR trades at a premium to Bitcoin NAV (mNAV > 1), because the value of equity options is inherently attractive.

Looking at the longer timeline, the marginal buying in 2025 is essentially driven by two forces: spot ETFs and Strategy. From the cumulative accumulation chart, Strategy’s inflows throughout the year were comparable in magnitude to ETF inflows, meaning at certain stages its impact on prices could rival that of the ETF group.

The conditions in 2026 are clearly weaker. As mNAV narrows, financing shifts to high-cost two-digit preferred stocks and dilutive ATM common stock issuances. Under these conditions, it will be difficult for Strategy to continue large-scale buying without diluting per-share Bitcoin content. Strategy remains a market sentiment indicator, but its buying pressure will become more moderate and intermittent. ETF capital flows and overall crypto market risk appetite will become more reliable drivers of price.