The Bitcoin Recovery in Uptrend is Reflective—On-Chain Indicators Disprove Optimism

In recent days, Bitcoin’s price has experienced a significant rebound, reaching $67.96K on February 22, with a 24-hour change of -0.05%. This movement raises the classic market question: are we facing a structural trend reversal or just a reflexive jump without real foundation? The answer depends less on the size of the rally and more on understanding whether it reflects a genuine change in spot demand or merely a superficial psychological recovery.

The Reflexive Market Behavior and Its Deceptive Signals

In crypto markets, a reflexive move is one that arises not from new real capital inflows but from technical adjustments and emotional shifts. These recoveries are typically driven by position covering, portfolio reallocation, and temporary sentiment reversals. After periods of heavy liquidation and heightened fear, when selling volume temporarily decreases, market elasticity generates these “bounces” that seem promising at first glance but often fail in the following week. Bitcoin has a history of dozens of such reflexive movements, each convincing a new wave of traders that “this time is different”—when in reality, only market psychology, not its structural reality, had changed.

SOPR: The Indicator That Reveals the Truth Behind the Rallies

To distinguish between genuine optimism and reflexivity, analysts look at SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), which measures whether coins being moved on the blockchain are being sold at a profit or loss. When SOPR drops below 1.0, it indicates that participants are selling at a loss, prioritizing damage control over gains—a sign of genuine capitulation.

Historically, however, a persistently low SOPR does not automatically mark market bottoms. Instead, it appears during early to mid-phase bear markets, often accompanying these reflexive bounces that fail to sustain. True bottoms only emerge after a prolonged period of weakness in the indicator, multiple failed recovery attempts above 1.0, and widespread realization of accumulated losses. This historical pattern is critical to contextualize the current movement.

Why This Rebound Remains Weak: A Historical Analysis

Current data fit precisely into this intermediate scenario, not one indicating a true bottom. While the price recovered to $67.96K, SOPR still does not show strong structural support. Evidence of sustained flows from the spot market—indicating new real demand—remains limited and scattered. The movement lacks that “demand grip” characteristic of durable reversals. Instead, it bears all the hallmarks of a reflexive adjustment: rapid recovery, concentrated volume over a few periods, and no progressive base-building.

The Current Reality: Limited Signs of Structural Strength

In summary: Bitcoin’s current appreciation is better interpreted as a reflexive rebound within a continuing adjustment phase, not as confirmation that a durable, structured uptrend has begun. The historical SOPR pattern, the absence of strong signs of renewed spot demand, and the technical nature of the move point to a scenario where selling pressure has temporarily decreased—but genuine long-term buyers have not yet returned in significant volume. True bottoms require patience, cycle repetitions, and real accumulation, not reflexive jumps followed by profit-taking.

Analysis based on on-chain data and historical market patterns