I personally feel that the U.S. stock market is likely to remain stable this year. The market has already gained a lot in the past two years, so it's time to trade space for time, which is why the Nasdaq has been sideways for several months.

I don't think a major correction is very likely at the moment. We are currently in an interest rate cut cycle (not a recession), and with Trump's midterm elections in November, from a macro perspective, it's unlikely there will be a significant adjustment.
Of course, black swan events are unpredictable.
The biggest issue right now is that no new growth space has been found; the entire U.S. stock market is waiting. Waiting for what? AI infrastructure has seen nearly one trillion dollars invested, but the only thing that has emerged is large language models, and people are already fatigued.
These large language models do improve productivity to some extent, but not enough to justify spending so much money. After burning so much cash, we need something truly disruptive—something that can completely rewrite productivity.
Currently, the highway is built, but are cars running on it? Can cars actually run? No one knows for sure.
AI can't just be played with in text boxes; it needs to truly experience the world and physically interact with it.
From what I see now, the only tangible example is Tesla's autonomous driving. (Not an advertisement, Elon Musk doesn't need me to promote him).
If Tesla's autonomous driving can work reliably, it proves that AI is not a bubble. It can genuinely understand the real world, and combined with business models like autonomous taxis, it can make money. Okay, the story of AI can continue, and the U.S. stock market can keep rising.
Conversely, if AI proves to be a failure, then it's over. All that money spent becomes real debt—you can think of it as a bad loan. The whole world would be doomed together.
So, 2026 is a critical year.