The Bitcoin Cycle for the Next 3 Years: An Aspirational Perspective

Bitcoin does not follow a linear path. Since mid-last year, when the price approached around $108,000, I indicated that this zone should not be lost without consequences — losing this support would mean entering a deeper corrective cycle. But this is not just a personal opinion based on intuition. It’s an analysis grounded in historical patterns that repeat every four years, a phenomenon known as Halving, and in mathematical dynamics that govern Bitcoin’s growth in an aspirational manner.

To understand Bitcoin’s future, you need to grasp three vital concepts: cycles, inflation, and logarithmic growth. You don’t need to be a guru or have a crystal ball to recognize these patterns. Just dedicate time to studying what happens at each Halving, understanding mining costs, learning about staking and leverage, and above all, seeing how all these converge into predictable cycles.

Bitcoin’s Logarithmic Cycles: Understanding the Pattern

Each Bitcoin cycle begins and ends with a Halving — an event that occurs every four years. If you look historically at each cycle since the first, you’ll see a remarkable structure: the first cycle peaked a bit earlier, but subsequent cycles showed highs at comparable times. Interestingly, all lows occurred roughly one year after reaching those peaks.

The current cycle (the most recent) appears to be smaller in magnitude than the previous ones, and that’s no coincidence. In fact, each cycle shows less growth than the one before. Bitcoin follows inflationary and logarithmic patterns. This is not trivial.

Inflationary means that Bitcoin, as a finite asset similar to gold or real estate in certain regions, should keep pace with inflation. But logarithmic? That’s the point you can no longer ignore. Bitcoin’s cycles do not rise at the same speed each time. The reason is simple: the more an asset capitalizes, the more expensive it becomes to keep it rising. Global money is finite. When something capitalizes billions of dollars, it becomes progressively harder to grow it at a rate above inflation.

Halving and Rewards: Why Each Cycle Grows Less

The concept of Halving is crucial here. Every four years, miners’ rewards are cut in half. Initially, this reduction was brutal — meaning they lost many BTC in rewards, which caused an abrupt price jump. Today, however, the reward decreases by only a few BTCs (between 3 and 1), so the price can’t rise as quickly as in previous cycles.

This dynamic explains why growth is logarithmic: each cycle capitalizes more total volume, but the Halving reward reduction is proportionally smaller. The result? More moderate growth with each new cycle.

Based on these historical patterns, the most likely scenario is that Bitcoin will continue correcting throughout 2026 until its end, before starting a significant recovery toward the next peak.

The Expected Correction: When and Where?

Where exactly will this correction hit? No one knows for sure, but history offers valuable clues. In each previous cycle, Bitcoin experienced deep retracements from its highs:

• First cycle: 85% correction
• Second cycle: 80% correction
• Third cycle: 75% correction
• Fourth cycle (current): maybe 70%?

This is just an approximation, but it follows a clear trend. The recent drop to $68,130 (current price in February 2026) represents a 50% correction from the peak, but previous cycles suggest there’s more room to go down. A new 50% drop would bring Bitcoin to the $30,000–$40,000 range, reaching a total correction close to 70%, aligned with the historical pattern.

There’s a price gap to be filled in these zones, and in terms of timing, the outlook is even more interesting.

Accumulation Strategy: The Perfect Timing

The correction duration in each previous cycle was remarkably consistent:

• First cycle: 12 months of correction
• Second cycle: 12 months of correction
• Third cycle: 12 months of correction

If this fourth cycle follows the same pattern, the period of greatest pain could occur around October 2026 — when almost everyone will say Bitcoin is going to zero. Maybe yes, maybe no. But that’s where the opportunity arises.

Starting to accumulate positions around $60,000 (where we are now) and setting aside additional capital for the $30,000–$40,000 zone allows you to build an average cost of about $50,000 over 2026. This scaled accumulation strategy reduces risks while maximizing exposure to the zones of greatest opportunity.

While waiting for the price to hit the right zones to buy more, you could also execute quick trades to capture the next 10% rally, generating short-term gains.

Aspirational Investment: Total Risk and Potential Return

After three years, the next cycle peak should form, likely guided by a logarithmic progression. Considering historical data and previous rally series, an aspirational peak around $150,000 seems plausible — just slightly above the current peak of $120,000.

We’re talking about an aspirational investment that could triple its value in 3 years, comparing the average accumulation price of $50,000 to the expected peak of $150,000. That’s a substantial return.

But here’s the critical point: the risk is total. This is a no-Stop Loss strategy, a purely aspirational investment with no capital protection. Under no circumstances does this constitute a patrimony preservation strategy. The potential return only materializes if the cycle thesis is confirmed and if you have enough capital to hold through extreme volatility.

Bitcoin offers extraordinary opportunities, but only for those who can tolerate total losses. The aspirational outlook for Bitcoin over the next 3 years depends on your risk appetite and your conviction in the continuation of this proven cyclical pattern over two decades.