Tomorrow marks the first trading day of the Year of the Horse in the A-share market. Institutions interpret the impact of the four major variables during the Spring Festival

Crypto News February 23 (Reporter Wang Chen) As the Year of the Horse Spring Festival holiday approaches its end, the A-shares will open the first trading day of the Year of the Horse tomorrow. During the holiday, four major variables intertwined, becoming key factors influencing the post-holiday market trend:

First, the U.S. tariff policy has undergone dramatic reversals. The U.S. Supreme Court dismissed some tariffs under the IEEPA Act, but the Trump administration quickly shifted to the 122 law to raise tariffs to 15%. This policy flip indicates trade friction may become prolonged, potentially suppressing market risk appetite in the short term. However, the resilience of export-oriented companies has been validated, so excessive pessimism is unwarranted.

Second, domestic AI large models and robots gained widespread attention through the Spring Festival Gala, with platforms like JD.com showing increased sales data, validating performance. Last Friday, related sectors in Hong Kong stocks surged, and sectors such as intelligent robots, computing hardware, and AI applications in A-shares are expected to attract capital. This is not just concept speculation but a sign of accelerated industrialization.

Third, the RMB exchange rate continues to appreciate strongly, increasing the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets, especially in the equity market. Foreign capital net inflows into Chinese assets have become a major trend.

Fourth, geopolitical uncertainties have intensified. Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have made no substantial progress, and tensions between Iran and the U.S. may even face military conflict risks. These geopolitical uncertainties have heightened global risk aversion, significantly boosting the value of safe-haven assets like gold and crude oil.

Amid these four variables resonating, sector rotation and capital flows in the post-holiday A-share market are highly watched. How to grasp the certainty in the tech industry, leverage RMB appreciation to allocate core assets, and simultaneously respond to short-term external disturbances from trade and geopolitics are key considerations for investors entering the Year of the Horse. Major brokerages have also provided in-depth interpretations.

Variable 1: Tariff Policy Changes, Trump’s Regulatory and Tax Adjustments

During the Spring Festival, U.S. trade policy experienced a sharp reversal. On February 20, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6:3 that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the IEEPA, including fentanyl tariffs and reciprocal tariffs, were unconstitutional. This ruling directly affected about half of the tariffs and may force the government to refund over $175 billion in collected tariffs.

However, the policy vacuum was very short-lived. The Trump administration quickly shifted to invoke Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act (Balance of Payments), announcing a temporary 10% import tariff on all goods imported into the U.S. Just two days later (February 21), Trump further raised the rate to 15% via social media, claiming it would take effect immediately. Several brokerages have provided detailed analyses of these developments.

Huatai Securities pointed out that the Trump tariff turmoil is not over, and subsequent policies remain uncertain. If new tariffs are fully implemented, the weighted average U.S. tariff could rise to between 11% and 18%. Due to unclear refund mechanisms and potential fiscal deficits, Huatai Securities maintains a forecast of medium- to long-term depreciation of the dollar.

Guotai Haitong believes that re-inflation risks remain high, and increased policy uncertainty makes safe-haven assets like gold perform better.

Bank of China Securities emphasizes that although some tariffs’ legal basis was dismissed, Trump can still invoke other laws to maintain trade barriers. For China, exports show strong resilience; tariffs are more short-term disturbances, and boosting domestic demand remains a focus for China’s economy in 2026.

Yuekai Securities further analyzes that while this ruling limits presidential power at the institutional level, it does not change Trump’s core approach of trade protectionism. The U.S.-China trade game will be long-term, arduous, and cyclical.

Overall, although institutional checks have temporarily taken effect, the emergence of alternative policies introduces new uncertainties, keeping the global trade environment fragile and creating good opportunities for safe-haven assets.

Variable 2: Spring Festival Gala Sparks Tech Outbreak, AI and Robotics Breakthroughs

This year’s Spring Festival Gala showcased humanoid robots, with companies like Yushu Technology, Galaxy General, Magic Atom, and Songyan Power participating, demonstrating key technologies such as high-dynamic motion, embodied intelligence, and multi-robot collaboration. Companies like Zhiyuan and Zhongqing also appeared on major video platforms. This high-density exposure generated significant market response, with JD.com’s robot search volume and orders surging, and multiple models selling out quickly.

Guotai Haitong pointed out that the Gala significantly catalyzed the humanoid robot industry. After the 2025 Gala, the humanoid robot index soared. In 2025, domestic humanoid robot orders exceeded 4.6 billion yuan, with more than half of the global companies in this field. Industry commercialization is approaching, though top-level embodied intelligence decision systems still face technical gaps. Dongwu Securities noted that in the two Gala events, humanoid robots achieved “super-evolution” in hardware, force control, and large model applications. By 2026, Tesla and leading domestic companies will begin large-scale mass production, moving the industry from 0-1 to 1-10 development stage.

Meanwhile, domestic AI large models saw intensive updates during the Spring Festival, with the Gala showcasing technological strength and validating commercial feasibility.

Huashi Securities stated that AI large model trends have shifted from general chat tools to vertical productivity tools and real agents, focusing on industrial-grade video generation (e.g., Seedance 2.0’s multimodal storytelling and audio-visual synchronization), engineering-level programming (e.g., Zhipu GLM-5’s cross-file reconstruction and system engineering capabilities), and consumer office scenarios.

ByteDance released the Doubao Large Model 2.0 series, achieving breakthroughs in video generation, with 1.9 billion interactions on New Year’s Eve, becoming the largest AI application in domestic user scale. Alibaba launched Qwen 3.5-Plus, enabling native multimodal transition and significantly optimizing inference costs. Its “Qianwen Guest” activity attracted over 130 million users experiencing AI shopping, successfully penetrating lower-tier markets and senior demographics.

Huashi Securities and Kaiyuan Securities agree that the 2026 Spring Festival marks a key inflection point for AI’s popularization among consumers. Domestic C-end AI competition has shifted from parameter battles to scenario implementation and cost optimization. The widespread adoption of AI will also boost demand for computing power leasing and hardware, creating substitution and volume opportunities for domestic computing industries.

Variable 3: RMB Exchange Rate Continues to Strengthen, Reaching 6.89, Supporting Equity, Bond, and Currency Markets

During the Spring Festival, the RMB exchange rate performed strongly. Since February, RMB/USD has appreciated from around 6.98, with a cumulative gain of nearly 1.3%. Onshore and offshore rates both stabilized around 6.9 and further appreciated to the 6.89 range.

Most brokerages are optimistic about the outlook. Huatai Securities believes RMB will continue to appreciate. Galaxy Securities states that RMB will exit the short 3-4 year cycle and enter a longer appreciation cycle, with the current point being the start of this cycle. The fundamental driver is China’s strong industrial export competitiveness.

Huatai Securities and Great Wall Securities note that RMB appreciation will significantly enhance the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets. Foreign net inflows into Chinese assets are a major trend. Western Securities favors A-shares and government bonds, and suggests maintaining strategic allocations in gold.

Huatai Securities states that RMB appreciation will increase overseas investors’ interest in Chinese equities, with Hong Kong stocks benefiting from foreign inflows. Galaxy Securities highlights Hong Kong stocks as the biggest beneficiaries of RMB appreciation, with northbound capital inflows expected to accelerate. In bonds and commodities, yields are expected to fluctuate narrowly between 1.7% and 2.1%, with different commodities showing divergence. Guolian Minsheng’s historical analysis indicates that during RMB appreciation cycles, the CSI All Share Index generally rises, with northbound inflows accelerating, and growth stocks outperforming value stocks.

The strong RMB provides solid support for Chinese assets, with the stock, bond, and currency markets moving in a positive correlation. The trend of foreign capital returning is clear, and the value of Chinese assets is re-emerging.

Variable 4: Geopolitical Tensions Worsen, No Substantial Progress in Russia-Ukraine Negotiations, U.S.-Iran Confrontation Intensifies Uncertainty

During the Spring Festival, global geopolitical uncertainties intensified. No substantial progress was made in Russia-Ukraine or U.S.-Iran conflicts, impacting short-term market volatility.

After the Geneva trilateral talks, Russia and Ukraine agreed to continue negotiations but made no real progress. Ukraine insists on fighting to the end, while Russia said the shortened negotiation time does not mean no progress. Meanwhile, tensions between the U.S. and Iran are rising. Reports suggest Trump is considering limited military strikes on Iran to force compliance with nuclear deal demands. If negotiations break down, the U.S. could launch large-scale operations lasting weeks, possibly in coordination with Israel.

Guosheng Securities suggests that escalation of U.S.-Iran tensions could lead to unexpected spikes in global energy prices. Guolian Minsheng notes that geopolitical events often cause pulse-like shocks to commodity prices. Gold, as a “price of chaos,” still has upward potential in the long term. Oil prices, with supply-demand improving after Q1, are expected to exit the bear market with significant upside potential this year.

Tianfeng Securities estimates that the pace of easing in the Russia-Ukraine conflict may be slower than expected but generally optimistic. If Middle East tensions worsen, global risk appetite could face severe tests. Geopolitical uncertainty remains the biggest short-term market variable. In the face of uncertain negotiations, gold and oil are key risk hedging tools.