Top 10 Brokerage Strategies: Post-Holiday Spring Market Expected to Continue; Technology and Resources are the Core Allocation Themes

CITIC Securities: Post-holiday Spring Market Expected to Continue

This February marks an important watershed. The leap in AI coding capabilities has officially pushed the global effective code volume into an exponential growth phase. Under current physical AI technology conditions, the total value and income from real-world production are far behind the expansion rate of AI-generated code. The world is likely to first experience a period of code volume expansion, excess execution capacity, intensified competition, and declining capital return rates.

Based on two dimensions—physical dependence across industries and regulatory/emotional barriers—industries can be classified into four categories: Damaged (low physical dependence, low regulatory/emotional barriers), Reshaped (low dependence, high barriers), Fortress (high dependence, high barriers), and Beneficiary (high physical dependence, low regulatory/emotional barriers). In the near future, the benefits for physical scarcity beneficiaries and those harmed by code expansion may continue to diverge, with this trend of differentiation persisting. This is a new factor that must be considered when analyzing market trends and sector allocations.

From a short-term market perspective, the A-share industry landscape is dominated by manufacturing and finance. Under the current AI impact, the influence on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is relatively smaller compared to US stocks. The pattern of capital inflow and investor optimism remains unchanged. The spring market after the holiday is expected to continue, with price increases still one of the key investment clues for the first quarter.

CITIC Construction Investment: A-shares Likely to Enter a New Uptrend

During the Spring Festival, global stock markets performed strongly overall, with no major risk events. Current market sentiment remains high, and the A-share market is expected to enter a new upward phase after the holiday. Sector allocation continues to focus on two main themes: “Technology + Resources.” The technology theme centers on AI, humanoid robots, new energy, and innovative drugs; the resource theme focuses on precious metals, oil and petrochemicals, and basic chemicals.

Key sectors to watch include: semiconductors, AI (optical communication, liquid cooling, electronic fabrics, high-end copper foil, etc.), machinery, non-ferrous metals, oil and petrochemicals, basic chemicals, power equipment (energy storage, ultra-high voltage, photovoltaics, solid-state batteries, etc.), and innovative drugs.

CITIC Securities: Post-holiday A-share Liquidity Expected to Remain Ample

The market is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend before and during the Two Sessions, with the main themes being pro-cyclical price increases and the spread of AI-related opportunities. The Two Sessions will soon commence, and given that 2026 is a “year of sixes and ones,” the “14th Five-Year Plan” year, there is hope that the steady growth tone will be reignited. Major infrastructure projects are expected to boost market confidence in investment. As PPI (Producer Price Index) deflation has narrowed and oil and resource prices surged during the Spring Festival, the continuation of pro-cyclical trades around PPI recovery remains a key driver of market growth.

Post-holiday, financing balances are expected to rebound, and risk appetite may increase ahead of the Two Sessions, keeping liquidity in A-shares abundant. The performance vacuum period and policy warming phase create a favorable environment for industry trend investments in the near term.

Shenwan Hongyuan: Mid-term Second-Phase Rally Still Likely

We maintain the view that a “second phase of rally” is possible, with the window likely opening around 2026. During the Spring Festival, many risk factors persisted, and a short-term correction may continue post-holiday. Once the lower boundary of the oscillation range is identified, preparations for the “second phase of rally” can begin, opening a window for strategic allocation based on medium-term opportunities. This is likely to be a slow start, allowing for a measured deployment.

The Two Sessions in March and the US-China relations observation window in late March to early April may both produce rebound waves within the oscillation. The best opportunities during these oscillations are in new tech directions, with short-term structural opportunities mainly arising from recent highlights such as robotics (not yet reaching low-cost regions), AI large models (more reflected in AI application diffusion in A-shares), and storage. Additionally, concerns over US-Iran tensions, oil, and shipping should be monitored. Based on medium-term opportunities, sectors like technology and cyclical alpha remain promising. Also, the revaluation of non-bank financials is favored in the medium term.

China Galaxy Securities: Focus on Three Main Themes

Post-holiday, with policy expectations, liquidity support, and industry trends catalyzing, the market is likely to trend upward with volatility. Close attention should be paid to short-term shocks from overseas uncertainties. Around the Two Sessions, the market may be driven mainly by policy catalysts, with capital competing around industry themes and opportunities, characterized by rapid style rotation. In March, the market logic will shift from “policy expectations” to “performance realization.” The disclosure of 2025 annual reports and the first quarter of 2026 reports will serve as key anchors. Stocks exceeding earnings expectations may attract capital.

Key allocation focuses include: Theme one—“anti-involution” concepts driven by supply-demand improvements and industry profit recovery, along with valuation-safe dividend assets such as non-ferrous metals (precious metals), oil and petrochemicals, basic chemicals, steel, building materials, and financials. Theme two—post-holiday, hotspots like robotics and AI large models are expected to show structural highlights. As the global landscape undergoes unprecedented change, the domestic economic logic shifts toward new productive forces, with sectors like semiconductors, AI, new energy, military industry, and aerospace worth watching.

Industrial Securities: Continuing to Favor a New Uptrend Post-holiday

Before the holiday, A-shares adjusted with global assets, releasing some risk. After the holiday, a high-probability window for a strong start is emerging, supported by factors such as US tariffs’ legal challenges and Trump’s visit to China, which bolster risk appetite and provide macro and industry catalysts. The market remains optimistic about a new upward cycle.

Relative to other sectors, technology manufacturing, resource products, and infrastructure are particularly favored. In technology manufacturing, focus remains on “pan-AI assets,” especially infrastructure for computing power and commercialization. For resource sectors, structural price increases driven by supply-demand improvements are expected to continue, mainly benefiting midstream materials and manufacturing. Opportunities related to upstream resources and downstream consumption, especially those linked to domestic demand and real estate, require further observation of supply-demand transmission.

Finally, attention should be paid to the recovery opportunities in export chains after tariff reductions, especially in light industry, consumer electronics, batteries, auto parts, and medical devices with high US revenue exposure and significant capacity or trade re-exports in ASEAN regions.

Guojin Securities: Key Focus on Global Physical Assets vs. Chinese Assets

The core of market style rebalancing is not whether AI bubbles exist but how AI’s macro impact interacts with monetary and major country policies. The main contradictions are shifting: investment activity is spreading from AI-driven to broader real sectors; and the relatively smooth US rate cut path is creating favorable conditions for global manufacturing cycle recovery. During this process, China’s productive capacity may be revalued, with capital flowing back, boosting domestic consumption and inflation cycles. For commodities, after high volatility, industry pricing will outperform monetary attributes; gold, as a risk hedge, may provide solid protection amid US debt sustainability concerns.

Recommendations include: (1) Reassess physical assets based on low industry inventories and demand stabilization—copper, aluminum, tin, crude oil, shipping, rare earths, gold; (2) Chinese equipment exports with global comparative advantages at cycle lows—power grid equipment, energy storage, engineering machinery, wafer manufacturing—and domestically bottoming sectors like petrochemicals, dyeing, coal chemicals, pesticides, polyurethane, and titanium dioxide; (3) Capitalize on capital inflows, easing balance sheet reduction, and inbound personnel trends—airlines, duty-free, hotels, food and beverages; (4) Benefiting from market expansion and long-term asset returns bottoming out—non-bank financials.

West China Securities: “Red Envelope” Market Expected After Holiday

Looking ahead, we believe the “red envelope” market after the holiday is worth期待。First, during the Spring Festival, external uncertainties such as Iran tensions and Trump tariffs suppressed risk appetite, boosting safe-haven assets, but driven by strong tech sector performance, global stocks generally rose. Second, against the US dollar rebound, the RMB stabilized and appreciated mildly, reinforcing long-term capital allocation to Chinese assets. Third, during the holiday, catalysts in robotics, AI large models, and storage released intensively, boosting expectations for tech sector performance after the holiday.

Dongwu Securities: Capital Likely to “Reignite” and Drive Momentum-Price Resonance

The “Spring Festival effect” in A-shares is prominent; post-holiday, capital is expected to “reignite” and drive resonance, leading to a positive start. During the holiday, most global markets rose, and risk appetite was relatively high. Liquidity-wise, despite uncertainties in Fed rate cuts, market expectations for liquidity remained stable; offshore RMB exchange rates were stable during the holiday. Domestic demand momentum is steadily recovering. Industry trends such as robotics and domestic large models continued to ferment during the holiday. As the Two Sessions approach, market stability expectations will strengthen further. The upcoming US-China relations developments, including Trump’s planned visit to China in late March, will help stabilize external environment expectations.

In terms of allocation, focus on medium-term industry trend certainty (greater resilience after correction) and the reversal of traditional economic headwinds (though full recovery lacks odds, defensive attributes are valuable). Key areas include: (1) AI and pan-AI fields—cloud, domestic chips (semiconductors, materials, packaging/testing), related infrastructure like gas turbines and liquid cooling, robotics; (2) emerging industries in the “14th Five-Year Plan”—commercial aerospace, quantum, hydrogen energy, brain-machine interfaces; (3) cyclical sectors—chemicals, building materials, leading consumer brands, engineering machinery; (4) energy storage and strategic resources (rare earths).

Guotou Securities: Technology to Make a Comeback Post-holiday

During the Spring Festival, global equity markets saw limited volatility, with most rising, boosting post-holiday trading sentiment in A-shares. Three key events during the holiday are noteworthy: first, US tariffs’ re-evaluation—actual tariffs on China may decrease, maintaining market hopes for improved US-China trade relations, supporting risk appetite; second, domestic robotics and large models received important catalysts, and US tech giants’ earnings reports will further boost A-share tech sector enthusiasm; third, tensions in Iran, rising oil prices, and Fed rate expectations create significant opportunities in resource sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals.

Overall, no clear negative events impacted A-shares during the holiday, and the short-term outlook remains positive, with “tech resurgence” after the holiday being a prominent possibility.