College Degree Earnings Gap Narrows: What Non-Degree Workers Are Earning Now

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• The wage gap between non-college graduate workers and college graduates in 2025 was the smallest since 2019.
• When adjusted for inflation, college graduate wages fell by 5.6% from December 2019 to December 2025, while non-college graduate wages rose by 1.5%.
• Alternative education, like vocational and trade schools, is becoming more popular, and some jobs that don’t require a degree offer salaries close to those of college graduates.

Workers without a college education are narrowing the income gap with college graduates.

In December, the average non-college graduate worker earned about 57.4% of the weekly earnings of college graduates. That is the third-highest ratio of non-college graduate wages to college graduate wages recorded in a quarterly analysis done by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The highest ratio recorded was in July 2025, at 57.75%.

Why This Matters

Slowing wage growth isn’t the only problem for recent college graduates. They’ve also faced unemployment that is rising faster than in other labor groups, and growing competition from AI for white-collar jobs.

For many college graduate workers, earnings are not keeping pace with inflation. In December 2019, the average college-educated worker earned the equivalent of $1,389 in today’s dollars. By December 2025, that figure had fallen to $1,311, a 5.6% decline in real wages.

Meanwhile, an average worker without a college degree earned $753 a week in December 2025, up 1.5% from six years earlier.

Many recent high school graduates are skipping four-year colleges, especially as trade and vocational programs expand. During the 2025 fall semester, enrollment in bachelor’s programs grew by 0.9% but certificate and associate degree program enrollments grew by 1.9% and 2.2%, respectively, according to the most recent report from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.

Some positions that don’t require a bachelor’s degree can pay as much as those that do. For example, first-line supervisors of office and administrative support workers typically require only a high school degree, and the average worker in this position earns about $66,140 a year, only about $2,000 less than the average college graduate’s annual earnings.

Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses, who do not need to attend college but do require a license, can make around $62,340. These workers, who hold only a license or certificate, also generally take on less student debt.

Although the gap is shrinking, college graduates still hold the advantage in terms of the highest wages and the lowest unemployment rates. Additionally, for most students who take out loans, a bachelor’s degree still pays off.

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