Future Copper Price Trend Analysis: Divergence Among the Big Three Wall Street Banks Worsens, Can It Reach New Highs Again by 2026?

Copper prices, after experiencing a strong rally, are now becoming a focal point of debate on Wall Street. Recent price fluctuations have sparked intense discussions among major investment banks, with market opinions on copper’s performance in 2026 showing clear divergence. This widely favored commodity’s future trend—what will it be? Let’s find the answer from the latest price movements and institutional viewpoints.

Short-term correction for copper prices, hitting a new high in January before pulling back

London copper prices reached a historic high of $13,403 per ton on January 14 but soon faced downward pressure. By January 16, copper fell to $12,770 per ton, declining for the second consecutive day, indicating signs of a short-term correction. Although this decline isn’t severe, it hints at a subtle shift in market sentiment.

Over the past year, copper prices have surged by 40%, with a vigorous upward trend. Factors supporting this rally include frequent global copper mine accidents limiting supply, market expectations that U.S. tariffs on refined copper may trigger stockpiling, and the ongoing demand from emerging sectors like AI data centers. However, recent policy changes have disrupted this one-way upward momentum.

U.S. President Trump decided to temporarily suspend tariffs on rare earths and other critical minerals, easing market expectations of stockpiling. Additionally, NVIDIA revised data in a technical paper, drastically reducing the estimated copper busbar usage per gigawatt of rack from 500,000 tons to 200 tons. This adjustment directly dampened optimistic expectations for copper demand from AI data centers and has been a significant factor in recent copper price pressure.

Wall Street’s big three banks hold divergent forecasts for 2026 copper prices

Facing the future trend of copper prices, Goldman Sachs, Citibank, and UBS have given markedly different assessments.

Goldman’s bearish outlook

Goldman believes this rally in copper prices has essentially run its course and faces significant correction risks. The bank points out that the recent surge was mainly driven by U.S. stockpiling, which, once the tariff policies in Q2 are settled—whether delayed or implemented—the stockpiling momentum will dissipate. Goldman forecasts that the average LME copper price in the first half of 2026 will fall to $12,750 per ton, and further decline to $11,200 per ton in the second half, implying a substantial drop in copper prices.

Citibank’s neutral stance

Citibank has raised its short-term target for copper to $14,000 per ton but also issued a warning. The bank believes January could be the peak price for 2026, and prices above $13,000 will trigger a surge in scrap copper recycling, ultimately balancing supply and demand. Citibank predicts that copper prices from Q2 to Q4 2026 will stabilize around $13,000 per ton.

UBS’s optimistic outlook

UBS holds a completely different bullish view. The bank points out that the efficiency of capital investment in mining has sharply declined, which could lead to severe shortages in the copper market in 2026-2027. While acknowledging that short-term prices may face consolidation, UBS firmly believes 2026 will be the year when the market truly experiences physical shortages, with declining inventories continuing to support further price increases.

The real test for the 2026 copper market: supply shortages vs. demand shifts

Latest research from S&P Global indicates that fierce competition in AI and surging defense spending will further intensify copper supply pressures. The institution projects that global copper demand will grow by 50% by 2040. Notably, emerging applications like humanoid robots could become key variables in changing future copper price trends.

Ultimately, the future of copper prices depends on the dynamic balance between supply and demand. The divergence among Goldman Sachs’s bearish view, Citibank’s neutral stance, and UBS’s bullish outlook reflects different assessments of policy directions, supply capacity, and demand strength. Regardless of which forecast proves correct, 2026 will be a critical year for the copper market.