#马年开工第一帖 Is Bitcoin really a good buy at this point? Don't rush, first understand the risks and cycles!

Bitcoin has fallen below $60,000, and many are calling it a "bottom," but this is definitely not a safe bottom. The current macro pressures remain: tariff disruptions, tightening liquidity, ETF fund outflows, combined with high leverage liquidation risks. The $60,000 level is a key psychological barrier; once broken, it could trigger a chain reaction of declines. Historical cycles indicate there is still potential for deeper drops.

Technically, the market is in a weak oscillation with no clear signs of stabilization. The probability of catching a falling knife is very low. Bitcoin is a high-risk speculative asset, with no cash flow or tangible backing, and its volatility far exceeds traditional assets. Ordinary investors should treat it as a satellite allocation, with no more than 5% of total assets, and only use idle funds.

Conservative strategy: wait for daily chart stabilization and volatility to decrease before gradually testing small positions. Absolutely avoid leverage.

Buying the dip on the left side may seem cheap, but it’s really a gamble on uncertainty; controlling your hands and maintaining discipline is more important than chasing short-term rebounds. Re-entering after daily stabilization is not too late!