Exchange BTC holdings reach a new high since November 2024. Are institutional investors' willingness to hold back on the rise?

On February 23, on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant data showed that the Bitcoin balance associated with Binance wallets rose to 676,834.84 coins (approximately $44.53 billion), reaching the highest level since November 2024. This is about a 9.3% increase from the multi-month low of 618,782 coins in November 2024. Amidst the ongoing low-volatility consolidation in the crypto market, the significant rebound in exchange balances has sparked widespread discussion: is this an early warning sign of new selling pressure, or a prelude to institutional capital entering the market?

How to interpret the rise in exchange balances?

In traditional analysis frameworks, an increase in Bitcoin balances on trading platforms is often seen as a potential bearish signal. When Bitcoin flows from cold wallets or private wallets into exchanges, it usually indicates that investors may be preparing to sell or use their holdings as collateral for derivatives trading. Both scenarios tend to increase market volatility.

However, behind this balance increase is a detail that cannot be ignored—continuous large transfers by whales. Blockchain intelligence firm Arkham pointed out that Garrett Jin, known as the “Bitcoin OG insider whale,” transferred about $760 million worth of Bitcoin to Binance over the weekend. Just six days prior, this whale had also transferred $500 million worth of Ethereum to Binance. Whether this concentrated influx is a “prelude to liquidation” by whales or a “strategic move” in fund allocation is a key variable influencing market interpretation.

The true picture of institutional holdings: not simply “buy” or “sell”

To assess whether institutional holding intentions are truly increasing, we need to view the current Bitcoin holding structure from a more macro perspective.

Fundamental reshaping of institutional holdings

By the end of 2025, the liquidity landscape of the Bitcoin market has undergone profound changes. Data shows that the total Bitcoin held by ETFs and listed companies exceeds that on major trading platforms—approximately 2.57 million coins in ETFs and listed companies versus about 2.09 million on exchanges. This indicates that price-sensitive inventories have shifted from exchanges to institutional channels, with the largest holders transforming from traditional “whales” to listed companies and compliant funds.

This structural shift has altered the market’s operational logic: institutional funds enter through compliant channels like ETFs, with trading constrained by T+1/T+2 settlement processes. While this “friction” suppresses intraday volatility, it also risks building up redemption waves.

ETF fund flows indicate institutions are still cautious

Although institutional interest in Bitcoin ETFs was high in Q4 2024—data shows 1,041 institutions reported holdings of BlackRock’s IBIT, a 55% increase quarter-over-quarter—this momentum has slowed since 2026. As of mid-February, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced four consecutive months of net outflows, with total net inflows decreasing from a peak of $63 billion to about $54 billion. Between February 12 and 19, ETF net outflows totaled 11,042 BTC.

This data suggests that while institutions’ long-term allocation interest remains, the pace of new capital entering has significantly slowed in the short term.

Corporate holdings: the divide between long-term holders and strategic traders

At the corporate level, different entities exhibit divergent behaviors. Long-term holders like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continue to add to their positions, now holding over 478,000 BTC. However, the stickiness of such holdings is tested by market conditions—if prices fall below cost basis and credit tightens, forced selling may occur.

Meanwhile, major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs increased their Bitcoin ETF holdings significantly in Q4 2024: Goldman added 88.56% to its iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF and increased holdings in other Bitcoin funds. Although this “institutionalized” capital flow may not immediately push spot prices higher, it provides deeper liquidity and price support for the market.

Price performance and market sentiment: latest data from Gate

As of February 24, according to Gate.io data, BTC/USDT is trading at $62,900, down 4.87% in 24 hours.

This price movement reflects complex market sentiment regarding the rise in exchange balances: on one hand, concerns about potential selling pressure; on the other, cautious observation of whale intentions. Notably, Bitcoin’s volatility has compressed significantly—Glassnode data shows long-term realized volatility has dropped from 80% to 40%. This means that large single fund flows could have an amplified impact on prices.

Conclusion

Overall, current institutional Bitcoin holdings show a “structural accumulation with tactical caution.”

From a long-term allocation perspective, the trend of continuous inflows via ETFs, corporate treasuries, and other channels remains intact. The number of institutional holders of products like BlackRock’s IBIT continues to grow, and major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs are actively positioning themselves. This indicates increasing institutional recognition of Bitcoin as an asset class.

In the short term, however, the pace of new capital entering has slowed. ETF net outflows and rising exchange balances suggest some funds are observing or strategically adjusting. Large whale transfers may be isolated actions rather than indicative of overall institutional sentiment.

For investors trading on the Gate platform, key points to monitor include whether institutional inflows can offset short-term selling pressure, when ETF fund flows might reverse, and the outcome of Bitcoin’s battle between the $64,000 support and $68,000 resistance levels. After all, in a market where liquidity has been reshaped, exchange balances are just one of many indicators; the true intentions of institutions are often hidden behind more complex fund flows.