Is now the best time to buy gold? A comprehensive analysis of gold price investment decisions in 2026

When considering buying gold now, the first question shouldn’t be “Will gold prices continue to rise?” but rather “What are my investment goals and risk tolerance?” Currently, gold prices have risen above $5,150–$5,200 per ounce. This isn’t the bottom, nor necessarily the top. The key is understanding your purpose for purchasing.

Over the past two years, the gold market has undergone remarkable changes. From just over $2,000 at the start of 2024 to recently breaking through $5,000, with a total increase of over 150%. But this isn’t just a simple price rally; it reflects a restructuring of the global economic landscape.

The Deep Logic Behind Gold’s Rally: Why Gold Is Now Under the Spotlight

According to Reuters and Bloomberg data, the gold price increase from 2024 to 2025 has exceeded 30%, hitting the highest level in nearly 30 years (surpassing 31% in 2007 and 29% in 2010). Behind these impressive figures lies a market reassessment of the credibility of mainstream fiat currencies.

The core driver of gold prices has never been just inflation or panic but long-term structural factors that threaten the stability of the international financial system. When markets generally expect these issues to be resolved, the monetary premium of gold will truly diminish. In other words, evaluating gold now requires assessing whether these underlying factors have improved.

Five Key Drivers Supporting Continuous Gold Price Growth

First is the uncertainty in global trade patterns. Repeated tariff policies have heightened risk aversion. Historical experience (such as the US-China trade war in 2018) shows gold prices often fluctuate 5–10% in periods of policy uncertainty. In 2026, tariff effects and regional trade frictions remain key variables pushing gold higher.

Second is the ongoing decline in confidence in the US dollar. When capital loses faith in the dollar, gold—priced in USD—tends to benefit. In 2025–2026, expanding US fiscal deficits, debt ceiling disputes, and the global de-dollarization trend are driving capital out of USD assets into hard assets. This isn’t short-term; it’s a structural shift.

The Federal Reserve’s rate cut expectations are also crucial. Rate cuts weaken the dollar, lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold and increasing its attractiveness. Historically, each rate-cut cycle (like 2008–2011, 2020–2022) has seen significant gold price increases. Expectations of 1–2 more rate cuts by 2026 provide strong support for gold.

Note that sometimes, after rate cut announcements, gold prices fall instead of rising—usually because markets have already priced in the expectations. Tracking the probability of rate cuts via CME FedWatch is an effective way to gauge short-term gold trends—rising probabilities tend to push prices up; falling probabilities may lead to corrections.

Fourth is the persistent geopolitical risks. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, escalating Middle East tensions, and regional instability keep safe-haven demand high. Geopolitical events often trigger short-term surges in gold prices, and fragile global supply chains amplify this effect.

Finally, central banks worldwide continue to increase their gold holdings. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), in 2025, net central bank gold purchases exceeded 1,200 tons, marking the fourth consecutive year of net purchases over 1,000 tons. In their 2025 reserve survey, 76% of responding central banks expect their gold holdings to “moderately or significantly increase” over the next five years, with most expecting a decrease in dollar reserves. This indicates a long-term structural shift rather than short-term speculation.

Additionally, global debt has reached about $307 trillion (IMF data). High debt levels limit interest rate policy flexibility, favoring accommodative monetary policies, which further lower real interest rates and indirectly boost gold’s appeal. With stock markets at all-time highs and fewer market leaders, portfolio concentration risk increases—another reason many investors turn to gold for stability.

Investment Guidelines for Buying Gold Now

For experienced short-term traders:

Volatility offers excellent opportunities for quick trades. Market liquidity is ample, and short-term direction is often easier to judge—especially during sharp rallies or drops, where bullish or bearish momentum is clear. But this requires deep market understanding and the ability to adjust positions using tools like XAU/USD without holding long-term.

For novice investors aiming to capitalize on recent volatility:

First, recognize that gold’s average annual volatility is about 19.4%, higher than the S&P 500’s 14.7%. Start with small amounts to test the waters—avoid over-leveraging. A poor mindset can lead to quick losses. Using economic calendars to track US economic data can help inform trading decisions. But honestly, short-term trading is very risky for beginners.

For those wanting to buy physical gold for long-term holding:

Be prepared for significant fluctuations. While the long-term trend is upward, enduring the volatility is necessary. Physical gold also involves higher transaction costs—typically 5–20%—which can eat into returns. Gold’s cycle is very long; buying as a hedge requires a 10+ year horizon. Over that period, prices may double or be cut in half.

For portfolio allocation:

Yes, you can include gold, but don’t forget its volatility is higher than stocks. Avoid putting all your assets into gold—diversification and moderation are wiser. Gold acts as a hedge, not a primary income generator.

For maximizing returns:

Consider holding long-term while timing short-term swings—especially around major US economic data releases when volatility spikes. But this demands experience and risk management skills; not suitable for all investors.

Experts’ Outlook for Gold in 2026

As February progresses, spot gold (XAU/USD) has repeatedly hit new highs, currently staying above $5,150–$5,200 per ounce. So far in 2025, gold has gained over 60% from 2024 lows, with an additional 18–20% increase, showing no signs of slowing.

Major institutions are generally optimistic. Most analysts expect further gains driven by the same structural factors that fueled the bull market over the past two years.

Specifically:

• Consensus target: Average price of $5,200–$5,600 per ounce in 2026, with year-end targets around $5,400–$5,800; some bullish forecasts reach $6,000–$6,500.
• Goldman Sachs: Raised year-end target from $5,400 to $5,700, citing ongoing central bank buying and declining real yields.
• JPMorgan: Projects about $5,550 by Q4, supported by ETF inflows and safe-haven demand.
• Citi: Average of $5,800 in H2, with risks of rising to $6,200 in recession or high inflation scenarios.
• UBS: More conservative, with a year-end target of $5,300, but acknowledges risks of acceleration in rate cuts.
• WGC / LBMA: Current annual average price estimates around $5,450, significantly higher than last year’s survey.

All these forecasts share a common theme: deep cracks in the global credit system, with gold serving as a long-term hedge against systemic risks. Central bank gold purchases since 2022 reflect ongoing doubts about the US dollar system.

Important Risk Warnings Before Investing in Gold

Remember, gold’s rally is never a straight line. In 2025, it corrected 10–15% due to Fed policy adjustments. In 2026, if real interest rates rebound or crises ease, volatility will likely continue.

For Taiwanese investors, currency fluctuations matter. USD/TWD swings can significantly impact your final gains or losses. A weakening dollar might offset some gains from gold, or amplify losses.

Most importantly, you need a systematic approach to market monitoring—not just following headlines. Set clear entry/exit rules, stop-loss points, and profit targets, and stick to them. Media hype and social sentiment can drive short-term inflows, but often lack rational basis.

The Final Answer: Is It Good to Buy Gold Now?

Honestly, there’s no absolute “good” or “bad.” Gold investment depends on three factors: your time horizon, risk appetite, and view of the long-term evolution of the global financial system.

The 2026 trend won’t suddenly disappear—persistent inflation, debt pressures, and geopolitical tensions remain. Gold prices are trending higher with limited downside in bear markets and strong momentum in bull markets. But that doesn’t mean you should buy now expecting guaranteed profits—everything hinges on your strategy and execution.

The key is, buying gold now isn’t just about “to buy or not to buy,” but rather “how to buy.” Whether for short-term trading, long-term holding, or portfolio allocation, each approach has its logic. The most important thing is to find a method that suits you and prepare for potential market swings.