Rocket Lab Is About to Report Q4 Earnings. Options Traders Expect 12.26% Move in RKLB Stock

Space launch services provider Rocket Lab RKLB -0.92% ▼ is scheduled to announce its results for the fourth quarter of 2025 after the market closes on Thursday, February 26. RKLB stock has rallied by more than 198% over the past year amid optimism about space technology stocks. However, shares have pulled back 21% over the past month, in reaction to the company’s announcement that a Stage 1 tank ruptured during qualification testing of RKLB’s Neutron rocket at its Long Beach, California, facility. According to TipRanks’ Options Tool, options traders expect about a 12.26% move in either direction in RKLB stock in reaction to Q4 2025 earnings.

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Wall Street expects Rocket Lab to report a loss per share of $0.10 for Q4 2025, the same as in the prior-year quarter. Meanwhile, revenue is expected to rise about 34% year-over-year to $176.83 million.

Investors will await management’s commentary on the Neutron rocket launch. Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket is viewed as a key growth catalyst for the company.

Analysts’ Views Ahead of Rocket Lab’s Q4 Earnings

Following the Neutron’s Stage 1 tank rupture setback, Craig-Hallum analyst Jeff Van Rhee reiterated a Hold rating on Rocket Lab stock, saying that Neutron’s maiden flight, which was on track to take place in the first half of 2026, will now likely be postponed a bit. The 5-star analyst added that such accidents are “typical in the development process, and the fact facilities were not damaged is a big plus.”

Rhee also noted that Blue Origin’s unveiling of its TeraWave constellation, which will comprise over 5,400 satellites and begin launching in Q4 2027, will expand the total addressable market for launch services, boding well for space launch service providers. However, Rhee remains sidelined on RKLB stock as he awaits a more compelling risk/reward to turn bullish on the space company.

Meanwhile, TD Cowen analyst Gautam Khanna reiterated a Buy rating on Rocket Lab stock with a price target of $100 after the company announced Neutron’s Stage 1 tank rupture. The 5-star analyst noted that RKLB indicated there was no major damage to the test structure or facilities and that the next Stage 1 tank is already in production. However, Khanna thinks that the rupture may delay Neutron’s initial launch, which was scheduled for Q2 2026. He added that if the Neutron launch is delayed, a second Neutron launch might not occur this year.

AI Analyst Is Cautious on RKLB Stock

TipRanks’ AI Analyst has a Neutral rating on Rocket Lab stock with a price target of $90, indicating 28.2% upside potential. The AI Analyst’s overall score is impacted by RKLB’s losses and negative operating and free cash flows, as well as valuation risk tied to unprofitability. On the brighter side, the AI Analyst noted solid technical momentum and a constructive earnings outlook, supported by record revenue, a robust backlog, and improving gross margins.

Is RKLB a Good Stock to Buy?

Heading into Q4 earnings, Wall Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating on Rocket Lab stock based on five Buys and four Holds. The average RKLB stock price target of $92 indicates 31% upside potential.

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