Trump's new tariff policy, UBS bullish on gold, how does geopolitics influence the direction of the crypto market?

By late February 2026, the global financial markets are once again at a crossroads amid macroeconomic upheaval. The dramatic reversal of U.S. tariff policies, ongoing spillover risks from Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions, and extreme bullish expectations for traditional safe-haven assets like gold have woven a complex web of cause and effect. As a representative of high-risk assets, the crypto market is keenly capturing every macro pulse.

Tariff “Rashomon”: From Overreach to New Global Tax

Political battles in Washington, D.C., are stirring waves across global markets. On February 20, the U.S. Supreme Court made a historic ruling, determining that the Trump administration’s large-scale tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act exceeded presidential authority, constituting an overreach. As a result, U.S. Customs and Border Protection confirmed that, starting February 24, they would cease collecting the illegal tariffs under this framework.

However, this tariff saga is far from over. The Supreme Court’s decision only limited specific legal grounds and did not strip the president of other taxing powers. The Trump administration quickly responded, announcing new, large-scale import tariffs on goods from all countries and regions under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, raising rates from 10% to 15% within a day.

This “trade war on and off the table,” filled with uncertainty, has directly heightened market risk aversion. As of the Asian market open on February 24, data from Gate shows Bitcoin (BTC) briefly dropped below $63,000, touching a low of $63,000, with a 24-hour decline of over 3%. Although it rebounded slightly to around $65,000, overall market fragility was evident. Ethereum (ETH) also came under pressure, hovering below $1,900.

UBS Shouts “Extremely Scarce”: $6,200 Gold Forecast

Contrasting sharply with the turbulence in crypto markets, traditional safe-haven asset gold shines brightly. Driven by escalating geopolitical tensions (especially expectations of Middle Eastern escalation) and the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle, UBS issued a startling forecast.

In its latest report, UBS noted that due to strong global central bank purchases and growing investment demand, worldwide gold demand in 2025 surpassed 5,000 metric tons, reaching a record high. On the supply side, by 2028, approximately 80 gold mines are expected to exhaust their reserves, intensifying structural scarcity. UBS has thus significantly raised its long-term target price for gold to $6,200 per ounce, emphasizing that in the context of ongoing geopolitical risks, gold’s role as a hedge remains irreplaceable.

Data from the Gate platform shows gold (XAU/USDT) has already reflected this outlook, currently trading at $5,154.4 per ounce, maintaining strong momentum.

Geopolitics and Macro: Double Shackles on Crypto?

The boundaries between traditional finance and crypto markets are dissolving, with geopolitical risks transmitting through multiple channels:

1. Liquidity Drain: When tariffs escalate or Middle Eastern tensions flare, institutional investors often withdraw from the most volatile assets first to meet margin calls or hold cash. As Orbit Markets co-founder explained, macro uncertainty is putting pressure on crypto markets, with funds easily flowing out.
2. Dollar and Interest Rate Linkage: Short-term, tariff policies may boost inflation, affecting the Fed’s rate-cutting pace; but UBS believes that expectations of rate cuts and declining real interest rates are long-term positives for gold—and similarly for Bitcoin, which some investors see as “digital gold.” Currently, however, Bitcoin’s correlation with risk assets like the Nasdaq remains high, constrained by concerns over tightening.
3. Flight to Safe Assets: UBS’s extreme optimism on gold may short-term divert some risk-averse funds. But in the long run, if sovereign credit currencies are eroded by trade wars and debt issues, decentralized crypto assets like BTC will face genuine narrative opportunities.

Market Sentiment and Key Levels

Market sentiment is extremely sensitive. According to MyToken data, the crypto fear and greed index is at just 8, in “extreme fear.”

Technically, $65,000 is a critical support level for Bitcoin. A decisive break below could turn $60,000 into a battleground for bulls and bears. On the upside, prices need to regain above $70,000 to reverse the current downtrend.

On the Gate platform, users can view real-time price movements and derivatives data such as the BTC Volatility Index (BVIX), which currently stands at 55.42, reflecting market expectations of future volatility.

Gate’s Multi-Asset Perspective: Bridging Traditional and Crypto

In the face of such a complex macro environment, the volatility of any single asset class cannot be viewed in isolation. As a comprehensive digital asset platform, Gate offers not only trading in main cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH but also integrates CFD products for traditional assets such as gold, crude oil, and US stock indices. This enables investors to switch freely between crypto and traditional safe-haven assets on Gate, achieving true diversification to withstand the dual shocks of tariff policies and geopolitical tensions.

Conclusion

Trump’s tariff 2.0 and UBS’s supercycle forecast for gold sketch the current macro landscape: uncertainty is the only certainty. For crypto markets, in the short term, it remains a boat in the macro storm, under pressure from liquidity tightening and rising risk aversion. The $63,000 BTC price shown by Gate data reflects this anxiety. However, in the long run, if sovereign credit systems continue to weaken due to trade frictions, crypto assets as alternative stores of value will be revalued. In this macro puzzle, staying vigilant, monitoring real-time data on Gate, and maintaining diversified asset allocations are key to navigating bull and bear markets.