JPMorgan downgrades Novo Nordisk's rating due to disappointing results from CagriSema weight loss trial, stock price declines

LootboxPhobia · 2026-02-24T12:17:44+00:00

JPMorgan has downgraded Novo Nordisk's rating from Overweight to Neutral due to poor trial results for its weight loss drug CagriSema, with market competitiveness weaker than expected. The target price has been lowered from 350 Danish Krona to 250 Danish Krona, resulting in approximately a 2.6% decline in the stock price. Analysts forecast that future sales and earnings per share will both be revised downward, below market expectations. Meanwhile, Barclays remains optimistic about Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy, citing significant early prescription growth.

LootboxPhobia

2026-02-24 12:17:44

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Investing.com - JPMorgan has downgraded Novo Nordisk (CSE:NOVOb)(NYSE:NVO) from overweight to neutral due to disappointing late-stage REDEFINE-4 trial results for its weight-loss drug CagriSema, which showed weaker-than-expected competitiveness compared to Eli Lilly’s Zepbound.

The Wall Street firm also lowered its target price for the stock from 350 Danish kroner to 250 Danish kroner.

Novo Nordisk’s stock price fell about 2.6% in Copenhagen trading.

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JPMorgan analyst Richard Vosser said that the latest data shows the drug’s weight loss effects are inferior to Eli Lilly’s Zepbound and its blood sugar-lowering effects in type 2 diabetes are more limited, prompting a reassessment of forecasts.

Vosser noted that after early trials, he had assumed CagriSema would have limited market share, but now expects “the product will face greater challenges in market acceptance given it is not as good as Zepbound.”

Therefore, JPMorgan has lowered its forecasts for CagriSema from 2027 to 2030 by 40%-63%, and its predictions for amycetins by 1%-23%, to reflect anticipated lower pricing. These changes lead to a 2%-16% reduction in group sales forecasts from 2026 to 2030, and a 2%-17% decrease in adjusted EPS forecasts.

Analysts now believe that Novo Nordisk’s forecasts for 2026-2030 are 5% to 21% below Bloomberg consensus, with expected EPS growth roughly in line with other major European pharmaceutical companies.

Vosser stated that CagriSema “seems unlikely to recover from the adverse results of the REDEFINE 4 trial,” although approximately 20% weight loss still outperforms Wegovy but is below Zepbound’s 23%.

The analyst remains optimistic about amycetin’s prospects, especially as an oral therapy, but warns that investor confidence may depend on Phase III data expected to be released in 2028-2029.

In another report, Barclays has a more positive outlook on Novo Nordisk’s recent acceptance of oral Wegovy. The bank said early prescription trends are “encouraging,” with about 48,000 prescriptions in week 7, a 12% week-over-week increase, and daily TRx showing “strong continued growth.”

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