Elliott Wave คือ: วิธีการวิเคราะห์ราคาและการหาจุดเข้าเทรด

Elliott Wave is a technical analysis theory that has gained significant attention in trading circles, especially in the Forex and other financial markets. It is based on the observation that price patterns result from changes in investor psychology, emotions, and confidence, forming predictable wave patterns of price movements.

Origin of Elliott Wave Theory and Basic Principles

Ralph Nelson Elliott, an American accountant, developed the Elliott Wave theory in the 1930s after studying stock data for 75 years. He discovered that the stock market, once thought to behave chaotically, actually follows predictable patterns.

Through systematic analysis of the U.S. stock market, Elliott found recurring price cycles. He called these upward and downward movements “waves,” concluding that this behavior stems from traders’ and investors’ reactions, which create repeating patterns that can be expressed mathematically as Elliott Wave formulas.

At age 66, Elliott gathered enough evidence and confidence to publish his findings in the book The Wave Principle, which became a foundation for trading and market analysis.

Main Waves (Motive Wave) and Corrective Waves: What Are They?

Elliott Wave divides price movements into two main types, each with distinct characteristics and counting methods:

Impulse Wave

• Moves in the direction of the primary trend.
• Composed of five waves:
  • Waves 1, 3, 5 move in the trend direction (up or down).
  • Waves 2 and 4 are corrective retracements.

This movement reflects market decision cycles driven by systematic trader and investor reactions.

Correction Wave

• Moves against the primary trend.
• Composed of three waves:
  • Waves A and C move opposite to the trend.
  • Wave B is a temporary bounce or pause (A-B-C).

These phases are relatively short and serve as market corrections or profit-taking periods.

Wave Size Relationships

• Wave 2 typically retraces about 60% of Wave 1.
• Wave 3 is usually the longest and most powerful.
• Wave 4 often retraces about 30-40% of Wave 3.
• These relationships help traders estimate future price movements.

Although originally designed for stock trading, Elliott Wave principles can be applied to other financial instruments such as currencies, commodities, and cryptocurrencies because the underlying behavior—patterns driven by human psychology—is universal.

Elliott Wave Structure Across Different Timeframes

Motive Wave

• Consists of two types:
  • Impulse Wave: moves with the trend, with waves 1, 3, 5 following three rules for proper counting.
  • Diagonal Wave: trend-following but with a wedge shape, including Ending Diagonals and Leading Diagonals, sometimes with fewer than five sub-waves.

Corrective Wave

• Includes two main types:
  • Sideways Correction: gradual price movement back to previous levels, common in markets with increasing confidence.
  • Sharp Correction: more complex, with four subtypes:
    • Zigzag correction: sharp decline.
    • Flat correction: sideways movement.
    • Horizontal triangles: triangle patterns.
    • Combination corrections: complex patterns combining different correction types.

Relationship Between Elliott Wave and Fibonacci Ratios

Elliott Wave and Fibonacci ratios are complementary tools; using one without the other reduces analysis effectiveness.

How They Work Together

Fibonacci ratios (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, …) help identify key levels where price may reverse or pause. Traders use these levels to determine entry and exit points, as well as support and resistance zones.

Calculating Fibonacci Levels

After a significant price move upward, traders measure from the bottom to the top to find potential retracement levels before the next move higher. Conversely, after a decline, they measure from the top to the bottom to identify support levels.

Wave-Fibonacci Relationships

In impulse waves:

• Wave 2 often retraces 50%, 61.8%, 76.4%, or 85.4% of Wave 1.
• Wave 3 is often 161.8% of Wave 1.
• Wave 4 typically retraces 14.6%, 23.6%, or 38.2% of Wave 3.
• Wave 5 can be 1.236–1.618 times Wave 4 or 61.8% of Waves 1 and 3 combined.

These relationships enable traders to set target prices and stop-loss levels more scientifically.

Advantages and Limitations of Using Elliott Wave in Trading

Main Advantages

1. Precise Entry Points: Helps identify potential reversal zones for maximum profit.
2. Improved Market Forecasting: Recognizing wave patterns enhances understanding of market direction.
3. Trend Following Opportunities: Clarifies whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.
4. Long-term Confidence: Provides clear guidelines for long-term investing.
5. End of Trend Identification: Indicates when a trend may be concluding.
6. Price Targets with Fibonacci: Combining Elliott Wave and Fibonacci allows for calculated target levels.

Key Limitations

1. Subjectivity in Interpretation: Unlike Fibonacci ratios, wave counts depend on individual analysis, leading to differing counts.
2. Difficulty in Identifying Exact Start and End Points: Complex price movements can make wave labeling challenging; manual verification is often needed.
3. Distinguishing Waves from Market Noise: Market volatility may be mistaken for wave patterns, leading to misinterpretation.
4. Not a Guaranteed Strategy: Elliott Wave is a tool, not a foolproof method; it does not guarantee success.
5. Requires Additional Tools: Best used in conjunction with other technical indicators, fundamental analysis, and risk management.

Practical Application of Elliott Wave in Forex and Other Markets

In Forex Markets

Elliott Wave analyzes long-term price movements of currency pairs, identifying repeating wave patterns to forecast future price levels.

Currency pairs typically display:

• Five-wave impulsive structures in the trend direction.
• Three-wave corrective structures against the trend, signaling entry and exit points.

Example in Forex

A clear A-B-C correction pattern indicates:

• A: a sharp decline.
• B: a bounce (some traders see this as a temporary pause).
• C: a further decline.

Traders might consider selling at the B wave high or waiting until the C wave completes, depending on their strategy.

Application to Other Markets

Elliott Wave is not limited to Forex; it is also applicable to:

• Stock markets
• Cryptocurrency markets
• Commodities
• Index markets

Its ability to identify patterns makes it a valuable tool for both professional and retail traders.

Learning and Practicing Elliott Wave

If you want to test whether Elliott Wave suits your trading style, start by:

1. Studying the basic theory thoroughly.
2. Practicing on demo accounts to avoid real losses.
3. Analyzing different markets to see how wave patterns appear.
4. Combining Elliott Wave with other analysis tools.

Consistent practice and experience are key to mastering wave identification.

Summary

Elliott Wave is a powerful technical analysis tool for traders seeking to understand and forecast market movements. It can be applied across various financial markets, from Forex and stocks to cryptocurrencies.

Its uniqueness lies in the assumption that price patterns result from human behavior, which repeats over time. Correctly identifying these patterns can lead to more informed trading decisions.

However, it’s important to remember that Elliott Wave is not infallible. To succeed long-term, traders should combine it with other analysis methods such as Fibonacci ratios, technical indicators, and sound risk management, along with patience and discipline. Always consider your personal risk tolerance, as investing involves risk of loss.