US CPI forecast upcoming, gold and dollar market迎来 turning point

In mid-January, the United States will release December economic data, with the US CPI forecast becoming a market focus. The data release coincides with ongoing investigations into Powell by the Department of Justice and the upcoming ruling on Trump’s tariffs, leading to heightened market attention. Unless inflation data unexpectedly surges, the overall environment still leans toward higher gold prices.

December US CPI Forecast Overview

The market generally expects the December US CPI year-over-year to remain at 2.7%, with a monthly increase of 0.3%. The core CPI (excluding volatile energy and food items) is even more noteworthy: the annual rate is forecast to rise from 2.6% to 2.7%, and the monthly rate from 0.2% to 0.3%.

According to Tradingeconomics data, over the past three years, US CPI trends have shown a gradual decline from high levels. Against this backdrop, the market’s expectations for this CPI report are both hopeful and cautious.

Morgan Stanley Prediction: Is It Statistical Distortion or True Inflation?

Investment bank Morgan Stanley has made a striking forecast, suggesting that December’s core CPI will rebound significantly, with a monthly increase possibly reaching 0.36%. However, the firm also points out that this rebound is primarily due to statistical distortions during the government shutdown, not genuine inflationary pressures.

This view is crucial for market sentiment. If CPI data is strong, it may be discounted as “statistical distortion”; if weak, it could be seen as a sign of cooling inflation. This asymmetry means that the market’s reaction to CPI forecasts depends heavily on how much the actual data deviates from expectations.

Federal Reserve Stance Stable; No Change in Rate Cut Expectations

Federal Reserve officials are well aware of the recent statistical distortions in the data, making it unlikely that a single month’s high reading will alter the short-term interest rate path. Market expectations for no rate cut in January remain steady.

According to CME FedWatch Tool, the market currently anticipates the first rate cut in 2026 to occur in June, with a 68.9% probability. This relatively firm expectation indicates that even if US CPI data is stronger than expected, the market’s outlook for rate cuts remains largely unchanged.

Gold and USD Diverge; Key Depends on CPI Deviation

The US CPI forecast will trigger very different reactions in gold and the dollar. If December CPI falls below expectations, it will be a strong bullish signal for gold, potentially pushing prices to new highs and benefiting other rate-sensitive assets. Conversely, if CPI exceeds expectations significantly, it will dampen expectations for rate cuts, boosting the dollar on rate hike bets and pressuring gold.

Technical analysis from TradingView shows that gold prices have exhibited a clear upward trend over the past year. If US CPI data meets or slightly exceeds expectations, the market may not react strongly; but if the data is significantly below expectations, gold could break out.

How Should Investors Respond to US CPI Forecasts?

In summary, the key to US CPI forecasts lies in the “deviation between data and expectations.” The market has already recognized the statistical distortions, which somewhat diminish the impact of the CPI forecast. Investors should closely monitor market reactions at the data release, as the trends in gold and dollar will be important indicators of the market’s true stance.